Sunday night time’s 2025 Oscars shall be filled with one thing many motion pictures final yr lacked: precise suspense.
It’s been an election-style season of scandals and momentum shifts that may all come to a head on the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Tight races are in every single place within the massive classes: Image (“Anora” vs. “Conclave”), Actor (Timothée Chalamet vs. Adrien Brody) and Actress (Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison).
Right here, Put up critic Johnny Oleksinski picks who will win and who ought to win on the 2025 Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien on Sunday, March 2 at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Greatest Image
Will Win, Ought to Win: “Anora”
The sensational stripper Cinderella story has received a convincing combo of lead-up prizes: The Cannes Palme d’Or, Producers Guild, Administrators Guild, Writers Guild and Critics Alternative. Doable upset “Conclave,” in regards to the election of a brand new pope, took the BAFTA and SAG, sure, but it surely’s the colder, thinkier film of the 2.
Greatest Actress
Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Lately, the Oscars have cherished feel-good profession awards. Assume Michelle Yeoh and Brendan Fraser. This might be 62-year-old Moore’s first Oscar ever, and she or he hasn’t been shy about that. The one factor going in opposition to G.I. Jane is the divisiveness of her body-horror flick. That would swing it to Madison and even Torres.
Ought to Win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”
The 25-year-old phenom is pure magic in a efficiency that, whereas surrounded by very good actors, carries the film of the yr.
- Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
- Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
- Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Greatest Actor
Will Win, Ought to Win: Timothée Chalamet, “A Full Unknown“
The 29-year-old actor successful the SAG Award felt like a giant deal. Eighteen of the final 20 have gone on to win the Oscar. Sure, the also-excellent Adrien Brody of “The Brutalist” has devoured up all the pieces else, however these honors have been from critics and abroad voters (the Globes are extra pinky-out than ever). It’s a toss-up, however I can’t assist however really feel that the 80% home Academy voters are considerably detached to Brody’s film.
Greatest Supporting Actress
Will Win, Ought to Win: Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Pérez”
“Emilia Pérez” has been hit by controversy after controversy. However well-liked Saldana has stored successful regardless. She offers an intense and deeply felt flip as a lawyer whisked on a musical (and soap-operatic) journey.
Greatest Supporting Actor
Will Win, Ought to Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Actual Ache“
The fast-talking “Succession” star is elegant as a charismatic cousin whose life has gone off the rails throughout a visit to Poland. He’s been this yr’s Robert Downey Jr. — unstoppable.
Greatest Director
Will Win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
The gifted Baker has been round some time, and has caught to his weapons with acclaimed indie fare resembling “The Florida Project” and “Tangerine.” Voters admire that, and his movie. He received the highest award from the DGA, which nearly at all times overlaps with this Oscar class.
Ought to Win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
It’s exhausting to consider you’re watching an unbiased movie and never some massive studio status image from the aughts. Thirty-six-year-old Corbet has a sensible, sweeping imaginative and prescient I can’t wait to see extra of.
Greatest Worldwide Movie
Will Win, Ought to Win: “I’m Still Here”
Behold the ability of Brazil. Ever since Torres’ shock Actress – Drama win on the Golden Globes, and the South American nation’s ensuing tsunami of assist, “I’m Still Here” has constructed many passionate followers stateside.
- “The Girl with the Needle,” Denmark
- “Emilia Pérez,” France
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany
- “Flow,” Latvia
Greatest Tune
Will Win: “El Mal,” from “Emilia Pérez,” Music by Clément Ducol and Camille, Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
It’s the perfect tune from an authentic musical, and a simple field to casually verify.
Ought to Win: None of them.
That the Oscars are stated to start with a 10-minute medley of previous, un-nominated “Wicked” songs says it all.
- “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
- “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing,” Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
- “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez,” Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol
- “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late,” Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin
Greatest Authentic Screenplay
Will Win, Ought to Win: “Anora”
I chided the yr’s total lack of suspense earlier, however that criticism doesn’t apply to Baker’s good “Anora” script, which over three distinct, breakneck acts retains audiences guessing until the very finish.
Greatest Tailored Screenplay
Will Win, Ought to Win: “Conclave”
Author Peter Straughan did a bang-up job of taking Robert Harris’ Vatican thriller novel and fashioning it into one thing, in turns, intimate and boldly cinematic.
Greatest Animated Characteristic Movie
Will Win, Ought to Win: “The Wild Robot”
Final yr the Academy picked artwork (“The Boy and the Heron”) over commerce (“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”). However the former was directed by Oscar favourite and animation legend Hayao Miyazaki, whereas the latter was a sequel. “Flow” may show the upset, however the inventive and heart-tugging “Robot” ought to be capable to full its mission.
- “Flow”
- “Inside Out 2”
- “Memoir of a Snail”
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
Greatest Cinematography
Will Win, Ought to Win: “The Brutalist”
Cinematographer Lol Crawley crafts jaw-dropping picture after jaw-dropping picture on this somehow-made-for-$10-million movie.
Greatest Authentic Rating
Will Win, Ought to Win: “The Brutalist”
Daniel Blumberg’s rating is partly — because the title would recommend — brutal, with spiky manufacturing facility clangs that alarm, but additionally pastoral and plush. It’s propulsive, like a transferring prepare or a doggedly decided Hungarian immigrant. The one different music that comes shut to creating as a lot of an impression is the sinister strings of “Conclave.”
Greatest Modifying
Will Win, Ought to Win: “Anora”
If the film’s momentum sustains all through Oscars night time, “Anora” ought to take enhancing by default. If it wobbles and “Conclave” begins trying like Greatest Image, that is when that occurs.
Greatest Manufacturing Design
Will Win: “Wicked”
“Wicked” is nominated for a slew of craft awards, most of which it doesn’t deserve. However many see the “Wizard of Oz” riff as an ode to old school soundstage musicals they watched as children. The opposite 4 nominees are additionally nowhere close to as colourful.
Ought to Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Like “Part One,” “Dune: Part Two” is an astonishing achievement of design in each doable respect.
Greatest Costume Design
Will Win, Ought to Win: “Wicked”
Now that I’ve bashed “Wicked,” Paul Tazewell’s costumes are the best visible factor of the film, combining the iconography of each “The Wizard of Oz” and Stephen Schwartz’s Broadway musical, whereas including on the element moviegoers count on.
Greatest Hair and Make-up Design
Will Win, Ought to Win: “The Substance”
The final half hour of the body-horror movie is bonkers — and the spectacular prosthetics are admirably tactile.
- “A Different Man”
- “Emilia Pérez”
- “Nosferatu”
- “Wicked”
Greatest Visible Results
Will Win, Ought to Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Greatest Sound
Will Win: “A Full Unknown“
Tod Maitland’s soundscape is, effectively, genuinely folksy, and as very important to whisking us again to Sixties New York and the Newport People Competition as Chalamet’s transportive efficiency and the meticulous visuals.
Ought to Win: “Dune: Half Two“
I’m enamored with the audio ambiance of “Dune,” mixing tribal chants, orchestral swells, bass-heavy area ships and big creatures.
