Simply over half the world’s inhabitants shares a river or lake basin with not less than one different nation. To sustainably handle these water sources for the well being of individuals, ecosystems and economies, neighboring international locations should work collectively.
Nonetheless, many international locations have been much less keen to cooperate lately, even to guard a useful resource as important as freshwater.
This pattern away from multilateralism isn’t distinctive to water. The world is seeing a decline within the common willingness of nations to collectively resolve many interstate, regional and international challenges. It reveals as international locations, just like the U.S., pull out of the worldwide establishments, such because the World Well being Group, and drop their help for international local weather objectives.
The breakdown in cooperation can have extreme penalties. If one nation takes extra water than agreed upon, and builds dams or pollutes the water, its neighbors and their folks, cities, agriculture, vitality manufacturing and wildlife can undergo. That may finally destabilize native communities, deteriorate relations between international locations and endanger regional peace and stability.
Water flowing into Africa’s Nile River impacts a number of international locations. A big dam being constructed by Ethiopia has led to issues and disputes within the area.
AP Picture/Amr Nabil
We conduct analysis and work with governments and worldwide organizations on surroundings and water regulation, coverage and governance. The shift we’re seeing away from multilateral cooperation and rules-based order to extra nationalistic tendencies, during which a rustic prioritizes itself to the detriment of all others, is elevating issues concerning the future.
1000’s of years of water cooperation paid off
Greater than 4,000 years in the past, two Sumerian city-states – Lagash and Umma – had been engaged in a fierce struggle over a strip of fertile land and a canal fed by the Tigris River in what immediately could be southern Iraq.
The battle resulted in 2550 B.C. with the primary recognized precursor to a world water treaty. The Mesilim Treaty included funds and agreements on collaborative water use. It didn’t maintain the peace completely, however it created a mannequin that lasted.
Battle nonetheless happens over shared waters; nevertheless, for the reason that late 1800s, and notably for the reason that finish of World Battle II, cooperation has been the dominant interplay between international locations on this planet’s 313 floor water basins, 468 transboundary aquifers and greater than 300 transboundary wetlands.
In Europe, for instance, international locations have labored collectively by way of treaties, information sharing and joint initiatives to enhance water high quality, together with within the Rhine and Danube rivers.
9 international locations work intently to guard the well being of the Rhine River, which every depends upon. In 2018, that cooperation grew to become important as water ranges dropped to ranges that interrupted ship journey.
AP Picture/Martin Meissner
Having cooperative processes in place additionally helps when disagreements come up. In Southeast Asia, negotiations and technical exchanges between international locations that share the Mekong River have helped to ease tensions over the development of dams in Laos.
Unilateralism is rising
Regardless of the confirmed advantages from cooperating over water sources, we’re seeing a troubling pattern: Nations are more and more taking actions that undermine water cooperation.
Even within the Columbia River Basin, typically thought of a mannequin of cross-border cooperation, the standing of an up to date treaty between the U.S. and Canada is in query after the Trump administration paused talks in March 2025.
Since 1964, the U.S. has paid Canada to regulate the river’s movement to forestall flooding and to serve U.S. hydropower crops. The up to date deal has been agreed to in precept, however will not be signed. That’s elevating questions on what’s going to occur if the interim agreements expire in 2027 earlier than the brand new treaty comes into drive.
One other instance is within the Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa, the place international locations more and more disregard agreements to inform each other earlier than constructing initiatives that may have an effect on the water movement. Comparable habits occurs within the Nile and Aral Sea areas, amongst others.
Ethiopia’s building of a giant hydroelectric injury on the Blue Nile has upset its downstream neighbors.
As unilateral actions over shared water sources turn into extra frequent, the willingness of governments to enter into agreements and set up joint establishments to information that cooperation is declining. The speed of creating multilateral agreements has considerably slowed for the reason that 2010s. Solely round 10 agreements have been signed since 2020, and solely two joint establishments have been established. A big proportion of basins haven’t any agreements or establishments in any respect.
The few latest makes an attempt to determine cooperative mechanisms have stalled or failed. The formal institution of a company to handle Lake Kivu and the Ruzizi River basin, shared by Congo, Rwanda and Burundi, was by no means formally ratified by its member international locations. That left the once-promising group a zombie.
Even when establishments exist already, some governments are withdrawing from them. However strikes made for short-term acquire can have long-term repercussions.
An instance includes the Aral Sea, which has shrunk dramatically for the reason that Nineteen Sixties as a consequence of a mixture of water demand for cotton crops and local weather change drying the area.
The Worldwide Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, IFAS, was created in 1993 by 5 international locations to help initiatives designed to make sure water use stays potential alongside its rivers. Nonetheless, in 2016, Kyrgyzstan froze its membership, arguing that the group wasn’t taking Kyrgyzstan’s nationwide pursuits into consideration. Kyrgyzstan contributes about 25% of water flowing into the area. Its frozen participation limits IFAS’ effectiveness.
The Aral Sea in Central Asia has been shrinking for the reason that Nineteen Sixties, however dramatically misplaced water every year over the previous 20 years. The highest left picture is from 2000.
NASA
Equally, Egypt and Sudan froze their participation within the Nile Basin Initiative in 2010 over a cooperative settlement that they noticed as violating their historic water rights – established in colonial 1929 and 1959 agreements – in favor of governance centered on “equitable water allocations.” Whereas Sudan resumed participation within the Nile Basin Initiative in 2012, Egypt’s participation stays frozen.
Erosion of multilateralism
The modifications we’re seeing with water agreements and establishments replicate a broader decline in international locations’ willingness to deal with shared issues by way of multilateral cooperation — a pattern that appears to be quickly rising.
In the USA, the Trump administration is pursuing expansionist international insurance policies and protectionist commerce insurance policies. The administration has additionally publicly wavered on the U.S. dedication to NATO and introduced it was leaving the World Well being Group.
Argentina additionally introduced it could withdraw from the WHO. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have withdrawn from the Financial Neighborhood of West African States, which promotes financial and political cooperation within the area.
The surroundings has been notably affected by this pattern. The U.S. transfer to withdraw from the Paris local weather settlement and the problem of reaching a worldwide plastics treaty additionally replicate the rising problem in reaching cooperative options to learn future generations.
Hurt to ecosystems, folks and international locations
As local weather change shrinks freshwater sources, and rising populations result in overexploitation of water provides, international locations will more and more want multilateral cooperation to keep away from battle.
These agreements and establishments present boards for communication and cooperation. Shedding them can result in much less well-governed water sources, declining environmental, financial and well being advantages, and rising battle.
Lake Chad is a cautionary instance. The Lake Chad Basin Fee was established in 1964 by Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria to supervise its water and different pure sources and coordinate initiatives associated to the lake. However the international locations by no means absolutely dedicated to cooperating.
Since then, the lake has shrunk by round 90%, which has elevated poverty by decreasing folks’s entry to important water sources to help their livelihoods. And that has created optimum situations for terrorist group Boko Haram’s violent insurgency to reach recruiting younger males who had restricted livelihood choices left.
Folks acquire water from a department of Lake Chad in Ngouboua, Chad, which has been attacked by the terrorist group Boko Haram. Folks depend upon the lake for water, however it has been shrinking.
Philippe Desmazes/AFP through Getty Photographs
We consider this decline in international locations’ dedication to multilateral cooperation needs to be a wake-up name for everybody. If the world’s most treasured useful resource will not be managed cooperatively and sustainably throughout worldwide boundaries, extra than simply water is in danger.
