After greater than two hours on the telephone on Tuesday, March 17, the US president, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, agreed solely to confidence-building measures, not a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
The 2 leaders got here away from the decision having agreed on a restricted prisoner change, a suspension of assaults on power infrastructure, and the creation of working teams to discover additional steps in the direction of a ceasefire and finally a peace settlement – a proposal which Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has since agreed to in his name with the US president.
A much less charitable means of trying on the final result of the second name between the 2 presidents since Trump returned to the White Home could be that the ball is now again in America’s court docket. Putin made it crystal clear to Trump that he’s not (but) within the temper for any compromise.
That is hardly stunning given current occasions.
The US has pressured Ukraine mercilessly into accepting a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which Trump hoped Russia would additionally conform to. However aside from a obscure assertion by Trump that he would possibly think about sanctions towards Russia, he has up to now appeared unwilling to ponder placing any significant equal stress on Putin.
On the bottom, Russia has gained the higher hand within the Kursk area the place Ukrainian troops have ceded many of the territory they captured after a shock offensive final summer season. As soon as Putin’s forces, assisted by 1000’s of North Korean troopers, have succeeded in driving the Ukrainians out of Russia, Kyiv could have misplaced its most useful bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow.
In the meantime, Russia has additionally made additional positive factors on the frontlines inside Ukraine particularly in components of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. These are two of the 4 areas (the opposite two are Donetsk and Luhansk) that Putin has claimed for Russia of their entirety since sham referendums in September 2022, regardless of not but having full management of them.
If Russia have been to seize but extra Ukrainian territory, Putin would most likely discover it even simpler to persuade Trump that his calls for are affordable. The truth that Trump already hinted at a “dividing of assets”, together with the nuclear energy plant at Zaporizhzhia – Europe’s largest earlier than its compelled shutdown in September 2022 – is a worrying indication of how far the Russian president has already pushed the envelope.
Ukraine battle: territory occupied by Russia as at March 18 2025.
Institute for the Examine of Battle
However a deal solely between Russia and the US will not be going to work. In that sense, time will not be solely on Putin’s facet but in addition on Zelensky’s.
The Russian readout of the decision between the 2 presidents claimed that they’d mentioned “the complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv” as a key situation for shifting ahead – one thing that Trump subsequently denied in an interview with Fox. Because of this, for now, Kyiv is prone to proceed to obtain US assist.
Europe on the prepared
Maybe extra importantly in the long run, Europe can be doubling down on help for Ukraine. Whereas Trump and Putin have been discussing a carve-up of Ukraine over the telephone, the president of the European Fee, Ursula von der Leyen, left little doubt on the place the EU stands.
In a speech on the Royal Danish Navy Academy foreshadowing the publication of the fee’s Readiness 2030 white paper on bolstering European defences, she recommitted to growing European “capabilities to have credible deterrence” towards a hostile Russia.
A couple of hours later, the German parliament handed a multi-billion Euro bundle that loosens the nation’s tight borrowing guidelines to allow huge investments in defence. This follows bulletins of elevated defence elsewhere on the continent, together with within the UK, Poland, and by the EU itself.
Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech on the Royal Danish Navy Academy, March 18.
EPA-EFE/Emil Helms
In the meantime, the UK and France are main efforts to assemble a coalition of the keen to assist Ukraine. Representatives of the 30-member group gathered in London on March 15 for additional talks.
Afterwards, the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, launched a press release saying that Ukraine’s western companions “will keep increasing the pressure on Russia, keep the military aid flowing to Ukraine and keep tightening the restrictions on Russia’s economy”.
Undoubtedly, these measures could be simpler if they’d Washington’s full buy-in – however they ship a powerful sign to each the Kremlin and the White Home that Ukraine will not be alone in its battle towards Russia’s persevering with aggression.
Putin’s choices
Putin, in the meantime, could have time on his facet within the brief time period – however he ought to pay attention to this. Russian manpower and firepower could dwarf that of Ukraine, however it might be no match for a Ukraine backed by such a coalition of the keen.
Putin’s obvious plan to tug Trump into the trivia of negotiating a complete deal could ultimately backfire in additional methods than one. For a begin, actually detailed discussions will check the US president’s notoriously brief consideration span.
However this may also purchase time for Ukraine and its supporters to strengthen Kyiv’s place in future negotiations. And it’ll proceed to pressure – however not instantly break – Russia’s economic system.
For now, Trump’s efforts to finish the battle in Ukraine have stalled. He’s trying to dealer a posh ceasefire deal that entails separate agreements with Kyiv and Moscow, stress on Nato allies, and an try to drive a wedge between Russia and China. It’s not clear how it will succeed or certainly the place it’s going to finish.
The one certainty is that they don’t seem to be bringing a simply and steady peace for Ukraine any nearer.
This text has been up to date to incorporate Volodymyr Zelensky’s settlement of the proposals agreed on the US-Russia name.
