In 1995, World Financial institution Vice President Ismail Serageldin warned that whereas the conflicts of the earlier 100 years had been over oil, “the wars of the next century will be fought over water.”
Thirty years on, that prediction is being examined in one of many world’s most risky areas: Kashmir.
On April 24, 2025, the federal government of India introduced that it might downgrade diplomatic ties with its neighbor Pakistan over an assault by militants in Kashmir that killed 26 vacationers. As a part of that cooling of relations, India stated it might instantly droop the Indus Waters Treaty – a decades-old settlement that allowed each nations to share water use from the rivers that movement from India into Pakistan. Pakistan has promised reciprocal strikes and warned that any disruption to its water provide could be thought of “an act of war.”
The present flareup escalated shortly, however has a protracted historical past. On the Indus Basin Water Challenge on the Ohio State College, we’re engaged in a multiyear venture investigating the transboundary water dispute between Pakistan and India.
Fazlul Haq walks by means of the Gargo Glacier floodplain within the Higher Indus Basin.
Fazlul Haq/Indus Basin Water Challenge/Ohio State College, CC BY-SA
I’m presently in Pakistan conducting fieldwork in Kashmir and throughout the Indus Basin. Geopolitical tensions within the area, which have been worsened by the current assault in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, do pose a serious risk to the water treaty. So too does one other issue that’s serving to escalate the tensions: local weather change
A good resolution to water disputes
The Indus River has supported life for 1000’s of years because the Harappan civilization, which flourished round 2600 to 1900 B.C.E. in what’s now Pakistan and northwest India.
After the partition of India in 1947, management of the Indus River system turned a serious supply of rigidity between the 2 nations that emerged from partition: India and Pakistan. Disputes arose nearly instantly, significantly when India quickly halted water movement to Pakistan in 1948, prompting fears over agricultural collapse. These early confrontations led to years of negotiations, culminating within the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960.
Fazlul Haq/Bryan Mark/Byrd Polar and Local weather Analysis Heart/Ohio State College, CC BY
Brokered by the World Financial institution, the Indus Waters Treaty has lengthy been hailed as one of the vital profitable transboundary water agreements.
It divided the Indus Basin between the 2 nations, giving India management over the jap rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – and Pakistan management over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.
On the time, this was seen as a good resolution. However the treaty was designed for a really completely different world. Again then, India and Pakistan have been newly impartial nations working to ascertain themselves amid a world divided by the Chilly Struggle.
When it was signed, Pakistan’s inhabitants was 46 million, and India’s was 436 million. Immediately, these numbers have surged to over 240 million and 1.4 billion, respectively.
Immediately, greater than 300 million individuals depend on the Indus River Basin for his or her survival.
This has put elevated strain on the valuable supply of water that sits between the 2 nuclear rivals. The results of world warming, and the continued combating over the disputed area of Kashmir, has solely added to these tensions.
Affect of melting glaciers
Most of the issues of as we speak are all the way down to what wasn’t included within the treaty, relatively than what was.
On the time of signing, there was an absence of complete research on glacier mass stability. The idea was that the Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus River system, have been comparatively steady.
This lack of detailed measurements meant that future modifications because of local weather variability and glacial soften weren’t factored into the treaty’s design, nor have been elements akin to groundwater depletion, water air pollution from pesticides, fertilizer use and industrial waste. Equally, the potential for large-scale hydraulic improvement of the area by means of dams, reservoirs, canals and hydroelectricity have been largely ignored within the treaty.
Reflecting up to date assumptions concerning the stability of glaciers, the negotiators assumed that hydrological patterns would stay persistent with the historic flows.
As an alternative, the glaciers feeding the Indus Basin started to soften. In truth, they’re now melting at report charges.
Building web site of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam alongside the Indus River.
Fazlul Haq/Indus Basin Water Challenge/Ohio State College
The World Meteorological Group reported that 2023 was globally the driest 12 months in over three a long time, with below-normal river flows disrupting agriculture and ecosystems. International glaciers additionally noticed their largest mass loss in 50 years, releasing over 600 gigatons of water into rivers and oceans.
The Himalayan glaciers, which provide 60-70% of the Indus River’s summer season movement, are shrinking quickly. A 2019 examine estimates they’re shedding 8 billion tons of ice yearly.
And a examine by the Worldwide Heart for Built-in Mountain Improvement discovered that Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers melted 65% sooner in 2011–2020 in contrast with the earlier decade.
The speed of glacier soften poses a big problem to the treaty’s long-term effectiveness to make sure important water for all of the individuals who depend on the Indus River Basin. Whereas it might quickly enhance river movement, it threatens the long-term availability of water.
Certainly, if this development continues, water shortages will intensify, significantly for Pakistan, which relies upon closely on the Indus throughout dry seasons.
One other failing of the Indus Waters Treaty is that it solely addresses floor water distribution and doesn’t embrace provisions for managing groundwater extraction, which has develop into a big situation in each India and Pakistan.
Within the Punjab area – sometimes called the breadbasket of each nations – heavy reliance on groundwater is resulting in overexploitation and depletion.
Groundwater now contributes a big portion – about 48% – of water withdrawals within the Indus Basin, significantly throughout dry seasons. But there isn’t any transboundary framework to supervise the shared administration of this useful resource as reported by the World Financial institution.
A disputed area
It wasn’t simply local weather change and groundwater that have been ignored by the drafters of the Indus Waters Treaty. Indian and Pakistan negotiators additionally uncared for the problem and standing of Kashmir.
Kashmir has been on the coronary heart of India-Pakistan tensions since Partition in 1947. On the time of independence, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was given the choice to accede to both India or Pakistan. Although the area had a Muslim majority, the Hindu ruler selected to accede to India, triggering the primary India-Pakistan conflict.
This led to a U.N.-mediated ceasefire in 1949 and the creation of the Line of Management, successfully dividing the territory between Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Since then, Kashmir has remained a disputed territory, claimed in full by each nations and serving because the flashpoint for 2 extra wars in 1965 and 1999, and quite a few skirmishes.
A ruined village in Jammu and Kashmir, India, in the course of the conflict between India and Pakistan in 1965.
Hulton-Deutsch Assortment/Corbis by way of Getty Photographs
Regardless of being the first supply of water for the basin, Kashmiris have had no position in negotiations or decision-making underneath the treaty.
The area’s agricultural and hydropower potential has been restricted because of restrictions on using its water sources, with solely 19.8% of hydropower potential utilized. Because of this Kashmiris on either side — regardless of dwelling in a water-rich area — have been unable to completely profit from the sources flowing by means of their land, as water infrastructure has primarily served downstream customers and broader nationwide pursuits relatively than native improvement.
Some students argue that the treaty deliberately facilitated hydraulic improvement in Jammu and Kashmir, however not essentially in ways in which served native pursuits.
India’s hydropower initiatives in Kashmir — such because the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams — have been a serious level of competition. Pakistan has repeatedly raised issues that these initiatives may alter water flows, significantly throughout essential agricultural seasons.
Nevertheless, the Indus Waters Treaty doesn’t present express mechanisms for resolving such regional disputes, leaving Kashmir’s hydrological and political issues unaddressed.
Tensions over hydropower initiatives in Kashmir have been bringing India and Pakistan towards diplomatic impasse lengthy earlier than the current assault.
The Kishanganga and Ratle dam disputes, now underneath arbitration in The Hague, uncovered the treaty’s rising incapability to handle transboundary water conflicts.
Then in September 2024, India formally known as for a assessment of the Indus Waters Treaty, citing demographic shifts, vitality wants and safety issues over Kashmir.
Indian Border Safety Drive troopers patrol on a ship alongside the Pargwal space of the India-Pakistan worldwide border.
Nitin Kanotra/Hindustan Instances by way of Getty Photographs
The treaty now exists in a state of limbo. Whereas it technically stays in drive, India’s formal discover for assessment has launched uncertainty, halting key cooperative mechanisms and casting doubt on the treaty’s long-term sturdiness.
An equitable and sustainable treaty?
Transferring ahead, I argue, any reform or renegotiation of the Indus Waters Treaty will, whether it is to have lasting success, must acknowledge the hydrological significance of Kashmir whereas partaking voices from throughout the area.
Excluding Kashmir from future discussions – and neither India nor Pakistan has formally proposed together with Kashmiri stakeholders – would solely reinforce a long-standing sample of marginalization, the place choices about its sources are made with out contemplating the wants of its individuals.
As debates on “climate-proofing” the treaty proceed, guaranteeing Kashmiri views are included will likely be important for constructing a extra equitable and sustainable transboundary water framework.
Nicholas Breyfogle, Madhumita Dutta, Alexander Thompson, and Bryan G. Mark on the Indus Basin Water Challenge on the Ohio State College contributed to this text.
