The autumn of the Assad regime after greater than 50 years and the rise of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has introduced Syria to a essential turning level.
Many years of Ba’athist rule entrenched deep ideological and emotional divides inside Syrian society. Apart from the large job of rebuilding the war-torn nation’s infrastructure, the militarised nationalism and sectarianism of Assad’s regime have left the nation with lasting social and political scars. These have to be addressed as a matter of urgency if his successors really want to construct a unified nationwide identification.
The 13-year civil struggle deepened sectarian fragmentation, significantly between the ruling Alawite and majority Sunni communities. HTS’s Sunni-centric background now presents it with the appreciable problem of navigating these divides. Additional to that, the group’s historic ties to ideological extremism and its origins as a militant and militarised motion contribute to a big belief deficit each domestically and internationally.
In the meantime the outdated order has been shattered. This was already taking place. By the point of Assad’s downfall, the regime’s military was severely compromised. Systemic corruption, sectarian favouritism and organisational inefficiencies had crippled its effectiveness as a navy pressure.
Earlier than the struggle started with the favored rebellion of 2011, the Syrian military was a sprawling establishment with tons of of hundreds of personnel throughout numerous branches. By and enormous, loyalty to the regime was prioritised over skilled competence.
An internet of competing pursuits, deeply tied to sectarian and tribal allegiances and entrenched nepotism additional eroded the military’s integrity. It had additionally largely misplaced the respect of the majority of the Syrian individuals and was seen by most as a device of Assad, moderately than a defender of the individuals.
This picture was cemented in many individuals’s minds by the savagery directed towards peaceable civilian protesters in the course of the rebellion.
Greater than a decade of battle additional eroded the military’s effectiveness. Experiences spotlight the lack of over 75% of its fight capabilities as a consequence of defections, desertions and the seize of weapons by opposition forces.
The job of the subsequent era of leaders will probably be to rebuild. HTS chief Ahmad al-Shara, has mentioned he envisions that the Syrian military will transition from conscription-based recruitment to knowledgeable, volunteer pressure outfitted with superior coaching and fashionable expertise. However this technique stays imprecise and inconsistent, significantly as the complete disarmament of armed teams – a essential prerequisite for forming a unified nationwide military – has but to be agreed upon with al-Shara.
Challenges forward
Including to this complexity are the regional dynamics that pose important challenges to the brand new management underneath HTS. Convincing armed teams, together with factions inside the Turkey-backed Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), to formally disarm stays a serious hurdle. This challenge is additional exacerbated by Turkey’s position in sustaining factionalism in northern Syria.
Turkey’s insurance policies in northern Syria have lengthy been aligned with its nationwide safety and geopolitical pursuits. That is significantly the case in terms of countering Kurdish autonomy actions in northeast Syria. Whereas this may increasingly serve Ankara’s strategic targets, it dangers undermining Syria’s sovereignty and its efforts to ascertain an impartial future.
The brand new regime, no matter form it takes, should guarantee it addresses regional pursuits. But it surely should keep away from compromising the broader goal of constructing a unified and inclusive Syrian state.
Balancing exterior assist with the necessity to rebuild belief inside the inhabitants will probably be essential. Reaching this steadiness will probably be a formidable problem. But it surely’s important for constructing a Syria that’s each steady and sovereign.
Preliminary statements from Syria’s new management about navy restructuring and its dedication to transitional justice sign an intent to interrupt with the oppressive practices of the Assad regime. However these declarations have already been overshadowed by alarming incidents that elevate questions on accountability and the broader implications of this transition.
The duty of rebuilding Syrian cities comparable to Aleppo will probably be monumental and really expensive.
AP Photograph/Khalil Hamra
In areas comparable to Latakia and Homs, Arabic-language movies have surfaced exhibiting acts of brutal retribution. These have included torture of Alawites. There may be additionally proof of the abstract execution of some remnants of the Assad regime. So far there seems to have been no signal of due course of or indication that the perpetrators will probably be held to account.
Delicate transition
Interviews with former senior regime officers by some media channels, incuding al-Jazeera have revealed a mixture of cautious optimism and uncertainty. Officers described the method of disarmament as comparatively easy. However many appeared unsure about their future roles and whether or not they can be built-in into the restructured military or sidelined totally. This sense of limbo has the potential to destabilise the transition.
An extra layer of complexity arises from HTS’s ongoing efforts to legitimise itself within the eyes of the worldwide group. Since taking energy, the group has actively sought to be delisted as a terrorist organisation. It presents itself as a realistic and stabilising pressure able to filling the facility vacuum in post-Assad Syria.
In its few weeks in cost, the brand new regime has welcomed plenty of Arab and different overseas delegations. This reveals a calculated effort by HTS to painting itself as a legit political organisation, prepared to steer the subsequent chapter of Syria’s future. Whereas this engagement may assist al-Shara and HTS enhance the way in which it’s seen on the worldwide stage, it’s fraught with challenges and contradictions.
On one hand, the participation of worldwide delegations in dialogue with HTS may very well be seen as a needed, if controversial, step towards stabilising Syria and stopping extended chaos. However there’s a danger that by doing this too quickly will probably be granting al-Shara and HTS unchecked authority earlier than addressing key considerations about governance, inclusivity and the group’s ideological legacy.
The absence of concrete ensures for a transition to power-sharing and institutional pluralism raises the spectre of a brand new type of authoritarianism, cloaked within the rhetoric of reform and stability.
