A sequence of advances by the Sudanese army has led some observers to posit that the African nation’s yearslong civil battle could possibly be at a vital turning level.
Even when it have been to finish tomorrow, the bloody battle would have left the Sudanese folks scarred by violence that has killed tens of hundreds and displaced thousands and thousands of individuals. However the current victories by the army don’t spell the tip of its adversary, a insurgent paramilitary group that also holds giant areas in Sudan.
The Dialog turned to Christopher Tounsel, a historian of contemporary Sudan on the College of Washington, to clarify what the battle has value and the place it may flip now.
Are you able to give a abstract of the civil battle up to now?
On April 15, 2023, preventing broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF – led by de facto head of state Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan – and the paramilitary Fast Assist Forces, or RSF, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, recognized colloquially as “Hemedti.” The RSF emerged out of the scary Janjaweed militia that had terrorized the Darfur area of Sudan.
Whereas the SAF and RSF beforehand labored collectively to forcibly take away longtime President Omar al-Bashir from energy in 2019, they later break up amid an influence battle that turned lethal.
The key level of rivalry was the disputed timeline for RSF integration into the nationwide army, with the RSF preferring a 10-year course of to the SAF’s most popular two-year plan.
By early April 2023, the federal government deployed SAF troops alongside the streets of the capital, Khartoum, whereas RSF forces took up areas all through the nation. Issues got here to a head when explosions and gunfire rocked Khartoum on April 15 of that yr. The 2 forces have been in battle ever since.
To human toll of the civil battle has been staggering. As of February 2025, estimates of these killed from the battle and its associated causes, together with lack of enough medical amenities and starvation, have ranged from 20,000 to 150,000 – a large gulf that, based on Humanitarian Analysis Lab govt director Nathaniel Raymond, is partially as a result of the truth that the useless or displaced are nonetheless being counted.
The battle has displaced greater than 14 million folks, a quantity that demographically makes the Sudan scenario the world’s worst displacement disaster. Almost half of Sudan’s inhabitants is “acutely food insecure,” based on the U.N.’s World Meals Programme. One other 638,000 face “catastrophic levels of hunger” – the world’s highest quantity.
How have current developments modified the battle?
The SAF has not too long ago scored a slew of victories. At time of writing, the Sudanese army controls a lot of the nation’s southeastern border with Ethiopia, the Crimson Coastline – and, with it, Sudan’s strategically essential Port Sudan – and elements of the nation’s metropolitan heart positioned on the confluence of the Blue and White Nile rivers.
Additional, the SAF has reclaimed a lot of the White Nile and Gezira provinces and damaged an RSF siege of North Kordofan’s provincial capital of el-Obeid. In maybe crucial growth, the military in late March recaptured the RSF’s final main stronghold in Khartoum, the Presidential Palace.
A fighter loyal to the Sudanese military patrols a market space in Khartoum on March 24, 2025.
AFP by way of Getty Photos
Every of those actions signifies that the SAF is taking an more and more proactive strategy within the battle. Such constructive momentum couldn’t solely serve to reassure the Sudanese populace that the SAF is the nation’s strongest drive but additionally sign to overseas powers that it’s, and can proceed to be, the nation’s authentic authority shifting ahead.
And but, there are different indications that the RSF is in no rush to concede defeat. Regardless of the SAF’s advances, the RSF has strengthened its management over almost all of Darfur, Sudan’s large western area that shares a prolonged border with neighboring Chad.
It’s right here that the RSF has been accused of committing genocide in opposition to non-Arab communities, and solely the besieged capital of North Darfur, El Fasher, stands in the best way of whole RSF hegemony within the area. The RSF additionally controls territory to the south, alongside Sudan’s borders with the Central African Republic and South Sudan.
The truth that the SAF and RSF are entrenched of their respective regional strongholds casts doubt on the importance of the army’s current victories.
Might Sudan be heading to partition?
As a historian who spent years writing about South Sudanese separatism, I discover it considerably unfathomable to think about that Sudan would additional splinter into completely different international locations. Given the present state of affairs, nonetheless, partition is just not outdoors the realm of risk. In February, throughout a summit in Kenya, the RSF and its allies formally commenced plans to create a rival authorities.
The African Union’s 55 member states are mentioned to be break up on the difficulty of Sudanese partition and the query of whether or not any entity linked with the RSF ought to be accepted. In January, throughout the waning days of U.S. President Joe Biden’s presidency, Washington decided that the RSF and its allies had dedicated genocide and sanctioned Hemedti, the RSF chief, prohibiting him and his household from touring to the U.S. and freezing any American belongings he might maintain.
Any try and entertain partition could possibly be learn as an acknowledgment of the legitimacy of the RSF and would additionally create a harmful precedent for different leaders who’ve been accused of human rights violations.
Along with the RSF’s perceived lack of ethical legitimacy, there may be additionally the current precedent of South Sudan’s secession. South Sudan, since seceding from Sudan in 2011, has skilled monumental difficulties. Roughly 2½ years into independence, the nation erupted right into a civil battle waged largely alongside ethnic traces. Because the conclusion of that battle in 2018, the world’s youngest nation continues to battle with intergroup violence, meals insecurity and sanctions ensuing from human rights violations.
Merely put, current Sudanese historical past has proven that partition is just not a risk-free resolution to civil battle.
How has shifting geopolitics affected the battle?
You will need to perceive that the battle’s ripples prolong far past Sudan’s borders. Equally, the actions of nations such because the U.S., Russia and China have an effect on the battle.
Sudanese folks line as much as gather a charity ‘iftar’ fast-breaking meal in Omdourman on March 19, 2025.
Ebrahim Hamid/AFP by way of Getty Photos
President Donald Trump’s govt order freezing contributions from the U.S. authorities’s growth group, USAID, has shuttered roughly 80% of the emergency meals kitchens established to assist these impacted by the battle. An estimated 2 million folks have been affected by this growth.
Russian monetary and army contributions have been credited with serving to the SAF obtain its beneficial properties in current months. Russia has lengthy desired a Crimson Sea naval base close to Port Sudan, and the expulsion of Russia’s fleet from Syria following the autumn of President Bashar Assad elevated the significance of such a base.
After which there may be China. A serious importer of Sudanese crude oil, China engaged in conversations to renegotiate oil cooperation agreements with Sudan in October 2024 with the hopes of accelerating oil manufacturing amid the battle. An finish to the battle – and, with it, defending the stream of oil by pipelines susceptible to assault – would profit each members of this bilateral relationship.
Because the battle enters its third yr, the outlook stays frustratingly troublesome to discern.
