As he appears to solidify his territorial positive factors in Ukraine in a possible ceasefire deal, Russian President Vladimir Putin has one eye educated on Russia’s southern border – and boosting Russian affect in Central Asia.
In response to Western sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine struggle, commerce and funding between Russia and Central Asian international locations have grown considerably.
Russia’s Lukoil and Gazprom at the moment are the dominant international gamers in Uzbekistan’s power fields. In Kazakhstan, Moscow controls 1 / 4 of the nation’s uranium manufacturing.
However as Russia tries to reaffirm its position within the area, China has additionally been quietly increasing its affect.
Might this rising competitors over Central Asia have an effect on Beijing and Moscow’s broader relationship?
Central Asia drifting aside from Moscow
The Central Asian area is house to roughly 79 million folks unfold throughout 5 nations. It was a part of the Soviet Union till its collapse in 1991. Its strategic location between Russia and China, on the doorstep of the Center East, has lengthy made it a “grand chessboard” for nice energy politics.
Whereas Russia has historically dominated the area, Central Asian leaders have made efforts to considerably distance themselves from Moscow not too long ago.
On the Commonwealth of Unbiased States (CIS) summit in October 2022, for instance, Tajikistan’s president publicly challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin. He demanded respect for smaller states like his.
Equally, throughout Putin’s 2023 go to to Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made a symbolic assertion on the press convention by delivering his speech in Kazakh moderately than Russian. This was a uncommon transfer that appeared to catch Putin’s delegation off guard.
In one other putting second, Tokayev declared at an financial discussion board in Russia in 2022 that Kazakhstan doesn’t recognise Russia’s “quasi-states”, referring to its occupied territories of Ukraine.
But, all Central Asian states stay a part of at the least one Russia-led organisation, such because the Commonwealth of Unbiased States, the Collective Safety Treaty Group, or the Eurasian Financial Union.
Three states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) depend on Russian safety ensures via the Collective Safety Treaty Group.
And the area’s financial dependency on Russia stays important. Of the 6.1 million migrants in Russia, the most important teams come from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. These international locations rely closely on remittances from these migrant employees.
China’s rising affect
With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and constrained by Western sanctions, China has seized the chance to deepen its engagement within the area.
Beijing’s involvement in Central Asia has lengthy been financial. In 2013, for example, China unveiled its bold, world Belt and Highway Initiative in Kazakhstan. And by 2024, it was China, not Russia, that was the most important buying and selling companion of each Central Asian nation besides Tajikistan.
However in recent times, China has expanded its affect past financial ties, establishing itself as a key participant in regional politics.
On the inaugural China-Central Asia Summit in 2023, for instance, Chinese language chief Xi Jinping pledged help for the sovereignty, safety and territorial integrity of the area. That is historically a job performed by Russia.
Chinese language President Xi Jinping stands with Central Asian leaders on the China-Central Asia Summit in Xi’an, China, in 2023.
Florence Lo/Reuters pool/EPA
Xi has additionally been making high-profile visits to Central Asian states, signalling Beijing’s rising strategic pursuits right here.
Native populations, nonetheless, stay cautious. Public opinion surveys point out China is seen extra negatively than Russia.
Many Chinese language-funded tasks deliver their very own employees, limiting job alternatives for locals and fuelling resentment. There may be additionally anxiousness about potential “debt trap” diplomacy. Civil society teams have referred to as for financial diversification to keep away from over-reliance on Beijing.
Additional complicating issues is Beijing’s therapy of the Muslim minority Uyghur inhabitants within the Xinjiang area of western China. This has bolstered suspicions in Muslim-majority Central Asia about China’s long-term intentions within the area.
Rising competitors
The growing competitors raises questions concerning the potential affect on the broader, “no limits” relationship between Moscow and Beijing.
At a current discussion board, Putin acknowledged Beijing’s rising financial position within the area. Nonetheless, he insisted Russia nonetheless has “special ties” with Central Asian states, rooted in historical past. And he notably dismissed issues about China’s expansionist goals, saying:
There may be nothing about domination within the Chinese language philosophy. They don’t try for domination.
On the bottom, nonetheless, issues aren’t so easy. Up to now, China and Russia have managed to keep away from stepping on one another’s toes. How lengthy that stability stays, nonetheless, is an open query.
Central Asian international locations, in the meantime, are courting either side – and diversifying their ties past the 2 powers.
Lots of the area’s educated elite are more and more trying towards Turkey – and pan-Turkic solidarity – as a substitute for each Russian and Chinese language dominance.
Russia’s historic affect within the area stays sturdy. However the days of its unquestioned dominance seem like over.
Russia could attempt to reassert its preeminent place, however China’s deepening financial presence will not be going wherever.
With each international locations pushing their very own regional agendas, it’s arduous to disregard the overlap – and the potential for a future conflict over competing pursuits.
