Week 18 within the NFL is the one the place you are taking every thing you’ve discovered so far and put it in a blender.
There are all types of various angles and motivations happening: groups locked into playoff berths resting star gamers or a number of starters … groups that must win to make the playoffs and others who’re attempting to climb the seeding ladder to keep away from a harmful wild-card matchup … groups which are tanking for the draft.
Most of the video games embrace at the least one among these elements and we’ll level them out as we go alongside. However listed here are a couple of common issues to remember:
— Not all “tanking” groups lose. Prior to now two weeks, the Raiders and Giants have given up the No. 1-overall choose with victories.
— Not all “resting” groups lose. In accordance with analysis by Steve Makinen of VSiN, over the previous 13 years, locked-in playoff groups sitting key starters within the ultimate week are 13-23 outright however 20-14-2 towards the unfold. Take into account that earlier than laying double digits to the 15-1 Chiefs.
Right here we go, and good luck for a worthwhile final stand for the 2024 common season.
Saturday
Browns (+19) over RAVENS
Ravens clinch the AFC North and No. 3 seed with a win, however would additionally get it with a Steelers loss later within the day. Undecided how laborious John Harbaugh will push for a blowout. As soon as the lead will get to 2 touchdowns — or if Lamar Jackson takes successful — will he desire to hurry up the ending? The Browns don’t determine to supply a lot resistance, significantly if Myles Garrett is out, however a ultimate rating resembling 31-13 doesn’t cowl this quantity.
Bengals (-1.5) over STEELERS
That is one among my favourite Week 18 eventualities — a crew enjoying for survival vs. one which’s already within the playoffs and is attempting to enhance seeding. Bengals want a win then have the Broncos and Dolphins lose Sunday. That’s so much to ask, however we could be witnessing the beginning of a miracle run by a Bengals crew that was 4-8 after a 44-38 residence loss to the Steelers.
Sunday
Giants (+3) over EAGLES
That is the primary take a look at of Makinen’s stat above. The Eagles are resting Saquon Barkley with 2,005 yards as a substitute of letting him take purpose at Eric Dickerson’s report of two,105 in 1984. With Jalen Hurts additionally out, this seems like a case the place coach Nick Sirianni declared the common season over after final week’s 41-7 win over the Cowboys that clinched the NFC No. 2 seed.
The Giants have been determined to interrupt their 100-season-record 10-game dropping streak final week and now can be seeking to carry a successful streak into the offseason, regardless of the draft-position ramifications.
JETS (+1) over Dolphins
Miami wants a win and a Broncos loss to the Chiefs to make the postseason. If the scoreboard reveals unhealthy information from Denver, the Dolphins may have a letdown within the low-30s, after-dark temps in windy MetLife. As it’s, they’re Tyler Huntley rather than the injured Tua Tagovailoa.
Hoping that, just like the Giants final week, the Jets have a “pride game” in them at residence after their embarrassing 40-14 loss at Buffalo.
FALCONS (-8.5) over Panthers
Atlanta wants a win and a Tampa Bay loss to win the NFC South, and it possible will turn out to be obvious early that the latter gained’t occur. Nonetheless, I’d anticipate the Falcons to maintain enjoying as a result of their offensive stars must be having fun with success towards Carolina’s NFL-worst scoring protection.
Commanders (-6) over COWBOYS
A Washington win would assure the sixth seed and a greater matchup than the 7-vs.-2 in Philadelphia. The Commanders have had so little latest success, I consider Dan Quinn will hold the pedal to steel towards a CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys crew.
Bears (+10) over PACKERS
Inexperienced Bay wants Washington to lose. If that situation begins to go by the wayside, I doubt Matt LaFleur will let Jordan Love take too many pointless hits from indignant Bears. Additionally, Chicago is within the spot the Giants have been in final week — skilled soccer gamers attempting to finish a 10-game dropping streak.
Jaguars (+5) over COLTS
A meaningless matchup for the playoffs. The Jags have some draft concerns, at present sitting at No. 5, however they don’t appear too involved about that. Give me the factors towards a crew that gave up 45 factors to the Giants.
Payments (-2.5) over PATRIOTS
Patriots at present personal the No. 1 choose within the draft, and I consider they’ll maintain on to it after the Raiders and Giants let it slip. The Payments are locked into the No. 2 seed, however I’m completely happy to experience with any iteration of Buffalo’s 53-man roster at this value.
BUCCANEERS (-13.5) over Saints
The Bucs would clinch the NFC South with a win, and I’ll lay no matter value is critical on Baker Mayfield & Co. to do it. Of their 5-1 surge, 4 of the wins have been by 15 factors or extra.
Texans (+1.5) over TITANS
This one’s each a psychological and sensible play. The Texans are locked in because the No. 4 seed within the AFC, however after final week’s 31-2 loss to Baltimore, coach DeMeco Ryans has to do one thing to boost the temper heading into the playoffs. So I anticipate a powerful effort right here towards a Titans crew that’s 2-14 ATS, even when it’s Davis Mills rather than C.J. Stroud.
Chiefs (+10.5) over BRONCOS
On what planet would the 15-1 Chiefs be double-digit underdogs in a recreation? On Planet Week 18. Denver will get a wild card with a win or tie, however even with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Chris Jones sitting, there can be loads of brand-name Chiefs on the sphere enjoying with high quality backup QB Carson Wentz.
CARDINALS (-4) over 49ers
Two groups which are out of competition. I’ve a delicate spot for QB Josh Dobbs and would again him if not for a prohibitive 49ers harm report. The Playing cards have one final shot to point out out for the house followers, and the guests may not have something left at this level.
Chargers (-4.5) over RAIDERS
The Chargers are the sixth seed within the AFC however can transfer to 5 with a win if the Steelers lose Saturday. I want to choose this recreation now, so since I’m backing Cincinnati, I’ve to presume will probably be all programs go for Jim Harbaugh right here. If the Steelers win, you’ll have a a lot completely different level unfold Sunday morning.
RAMS (+6.5) over Seahawks
It is a tough one. The Rams are the NFC third seed however may drop to fourth with a loss. It might not be sufficient to threat Matthew Stafford’s well being however it does have some worth. This unfold is priced as if the Rams will punt on the sport, however I’m not there — and I’d be snug backing Jimmy Garoppolo if Sean McVay begins him.
Betting on the NFL?
LIONS (-3) over Vikings
Sport 272 could be the perfect of all of them. The scary half if you wish to again the Lions is that although each offenses are glorious, the Vikings even have protection and the Lions don’t. However this has been the 12 months of the Lions, and I’m figuring Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will work out tips on how to come away with the NFC North title and NFC No. 1 seed.
Greatest bets: Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams
Lock of the week: Chiefs (Locks 9-8 in 2024)
Final week: 9-7 total, 2-1 Greatest Bets
Why Belief New York Publish Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of many longest tenured NFL handicappers on the Publish with picks relationship again 31 years. He gained the Publish’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most lately in 2023.
