The Chiefs and Payments renew their annual rivalry after they face off in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas Metropolis stays the one undefeated workforce at 9-0, and this may probably be the final time in the course of the common season that the Chiefs will discover themselves in an underdog function.
Whereas coaches are likely to have completely different ideas on approaching an undefeated marketing campaign, there may be some thought that you just’re higher off dropping in the course of the common season than having your first loss happen in the course of the playoffs.
Consequently, this recreation is likely to be much less vital to the Chiefs within the grand scheme of issues.
On this preview, we’ll revisit the head-to-head matchups on this sequence and discover why Payments quarterback Josh Allen tends to save lots of his finest performances for these large video games.
Listed here are my Payments vs Chiefs finest bets.
Chiefs vs. Payments odds
| Workforce | Unfold | Moneyline | Whole |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +2 (-108) | +110 | Over 46 (-108) |
| Payments | -2 (-112) | -130 | Below 46 (-108) |
Chiefs vs. Payments prediction
Chiefs outlook
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown 9 interceptions by means of 9 video games and is 5 away from his profession excessive of 14 final season.
Nonetheless, his completion price of 69.5% can be a career-best.
Based on Robby Greerre’s quarterback rankings, Mahomes even has a Completion Over Expectation (CPOE) price of 4.1%.
Thus, whereas Mahomes is recording extra interceptions, he’s nonetheless throwing the ball with a excessive diploma of accuracy.
And while you take a look at the all-encompassing Whole QBR metric, Mahomes ranks fifth with a 67.6 worth.
Even when Mahomes posted his worst Whole QBR (63.9) final season, the Chiefs nonetheless gained their second-straight title.
Whereas we’ve turn out to be nearly wholly data-driven in sports activities at this time, it’s clear that the numbers fail to inform the entire story with the Chiefs.
Consequently, we are able to’t overlook that there are intangibles at play right here with the Chiefs, such because the continuity with their teaching workers and innate skill to rise to the event in the course of the recreation’s pivotal moments.
Payments outlook
Allen is having one other stellar season, and it’s onerous to think about that he’s but to win an MVP award.
This season, he’s thrown 17 touchdowns and even rushed for 4 on the bottom with simply 4 interceptions. He boasts a 70.2 Whole QBR, placing him fourth in that class.
The Payments sit atop the AFC East at 8-2 and rank within the high 10 of each offense and defensive DVOA metrics.
Allen has gotten the perfect of Mahomes within the common season conferences, posting a 3-1 mark.
Nonetheless, he’s but to get previous his nemesis within the playoffs, the place he’s 0-3.
The place the Payments have struggled towards Kansas Metropolis has usually been an absence of execution or consideration to element.
Thus, they in all probability gained’t get a greater alternative to place themselves to the final word take a look at than after they face the Chiefs.
Buffalo nonetheless must construct up its confidence in case the 2 sides meet once more within the playoffs.
When you take a look at the Jap Convention standings, the Chiefs have the fifth-highest level differential (+58), but they’re the one undefeated workforce.
Compared, the Payments boast a +97-point differential—39 factors larger than Kansas Metropolis’s.
The Chiefs even have the very best luck issue (+3.0) per TeamRankings, and sooner or later, one has to marvel if such a degree is sustainable.
Chiefs vs. Payments decide
I have to admit that I’m fully torn about which path to soak up this recreation as a result of the very last thing you wish to do is to try to fade Mahomes as an underdog.
Based on the Motion Community, the Chiefs quarterback is 7-1-1 towards the unfold in the course of the common season on this spot and 12-1-1 when you embody the postseason.
Thus, whereas I lean towards the Payments on this recreation, I nonetheless can’t absolutely decide to the house workforce.
Nonetheless, one solution to again the Payments with laying the factors is to take Allen to go over his dashing makes an attempt prop of seven.5.
Betting on the NFL?
Whereas Allen has turn out to be way more of a pocket passer, he’s not afraid to place his physique on the road in these high-leverage video games.
It’s value noting that he’s gone over 7.5 dashing makes an attempt in every of his 4 regular-season video games towards the Chiefs.
The video games imply extra when the opponent is Kansas Metropolis, and I anticipate Allen to try to pull out all of the stops in pursuit of a victory.
Greatest wager: Josh Allen over 7.5 dashing makes an attempt (-105, DraftKings)
Why Belief New York Submit Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most main sports activities for the New York Submit. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting profession in addition to a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Collection video games. Extra lately, he precisely picked finalists within the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
