We might not have a Cinderella, however we nonetheless want our interior Large Fowl.
For the primary time ever, the Candy 16 is represented by energy conferences solely. However this spherical nonetheless has championship pretenders, even when they arrive within the type of model names.
This 12 months simply requires a bit extra evaluation to decipher which groups aren’t just like the others.
At first look, Purdue appears the half. The No. 4 seed is a conventional program from a significant convention that may be a 12 months faraway from reaching the nationwide championship recreation.
However in my eyes, the Boilermakers are a farce and are prime to get uncovered, as they’re an eight-point underdog in opposition to top-seeded Houston.
Purdue has caught some bracket luck. It opened in opposition to Excessive Level, which was probably the worst No. 13 seed. Yale, Grand Canyon, and even Akron have higher measurables.
In accordance with KenPom, Excessive Level’s protection ranks 226th, and thus, Purdue’s offense might rating at will.
The Boilermakers then drew a 12-seed in McNeese State, which upset fifth-seeded Clemson in an odd recreation. The Cowboys barely confirmed up in opposition to Purdue, maybe as a result of their coach had already agreed to cope with a brand new employer.
However Purdue now faces the nation’s top-ranked protection. And whereas an anemic offense often has prompted Houston’s early tourney exits, Purdue doesn’t match the mould.
The Boilermakers rank fifty fifth in defensive effectivity, which ought to permit Houston’s Tenth-ranked offense to attain sufficient to cowl the unfold.
That’s the reason I’m backing the Cougars and placing my 35-20 ATS report on this Publish part on the road.
The Cougars misplaced in final 12 months’s Candy 16, however All-American level guard Jamal Shead suffered an ankle harm and missed your complete second half within the loss to Duke. In 2021 and 2022, Houston was eradicated by groups that had a protection ranked within the prime 25.
The 2023 NCAA Match offered the anomaly. The Cougars misplaced to Miami within the Candy 16 after the Hurricanes someway scored 89 factors in opposition to Houston’s elite protection.
The Canes shot 51.7 p.c from the sphere, together with 44 p.c from behind the arc. If Purdue can someway handle that, then so be it.
Betting on School Basketball?
However in the end, I feel level guard and Large Ten Participant of the Yr Braden Smith will face an excessive amount of resistance and athleticism, bogging down an offense that usually appears too methodical and deliberate.
I envision too many empty possessions to maintain this as a single-digit recreation.
The Boilermakers have pale down the stretch, dropping six of their closing 9 video games, earlier than catching the precise tourney opponents. It’s time for the bracket to trim the fats.
The play: Houston -8 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why Belief New York Publish Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Publish contributor who at the moment serves because the Chief Content material Officer for Solely Gamers, a sports activities betting media firm. Doug has over 20 years of expertise within the betting area, together with spending 11 years at ESPN as a number, columnist and betting analyst. He’s additionally the uncommon character who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill School Soccer Problem ($58K) and in addition grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
