Germany’s presumptive new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faces challenges each at house and abroad following his conservative alliance’s election victory on Feb. 23, 2025.
A robust exhibiting from the hard-right Various for Germany (AfD) – which Merz, in step with different mainstream German events, refuses to countenance as a coalition celebration as a part of an unofficial “firewall” towards extremism – will make forming a functioning authorities difficult.
However within the moments after the election outcomes, it was the way forward for the European Union and its relationship with America that was his fast focus: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”
To grasp why that’s such a priority for Germany now and what “real independence” from Washington means, The Dialog U.S. turned to Garret Martin, an skilled on U.S.-Europe relations at American College, for solutions.
What prompted Merz’s ‘real independence’ line?
Presumably it was a response to a sequence of current bulletins and actions by the Trump administration which have shocked the German political institution. This contains the sudden revelation that the U.S. would negotiate immediately with Russia to finish the conflict in Ukraine, however seemingly with out the Europeans or Ukrainians concerned. That growth went down like a lead balloon in Berlin, particularly contemplating Germany’s important monetary assist of Kyiv since 2022.
Furthermore, the German institution has additionally frowned at a sequence of current declarations by members of the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance’s speech on the Munich Safety Convention, during which he harshly criticized Europe for allegedly undermining freedom of expression, provoked clear pushback from German leaders. Trump, for his half, hardly endeared himself to his German allies when he denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”
And, after all, Elon Musk’s interference within the German elections – in addition to his open assist for the far-right Various for Germany – provoked a fierce response from Merz. The then-candidate promised that Musk would must be ready for authorized penalties for his meddling.
Elon Musk addresses, through videolink, the election marketing campaign launch rally of the far-right Various for Germany on Jan. 25, 2025.
Sean Gallup/Getty Photographs
How would this ‘real independence’ be achieved?
Defining what “real independence” means and with the ability to implement such a drastic change in transatlantic relations will probably be a tall order. If by “real independence” Merz signifies that Germany would now not depend on the U.S. for its safety, then that may require a number of main steps.
Merz would first must persuade his probably coalition companions, the Social Democrats, that that is the appropriate purpose. In any case, German governments are sure by very detailed coalition agreements. Second, Merz would wish to considerably enhance German protection spending. Because it stands, Germany’s annual protection price range is barely over US$90 billion, or 2% of its GDP. However a current research by the financial suppose tank Bruegel suggests Berlin would wish to extend its price range by $145 billion yearly to defend Europe with out the help of the U.S.
However to attain this, Merz will probably want to extend protection spending by such a degree that it’s going to contravene the nation’s “debt brake.” This 2009 constitutional rule primarily caps the annual deficit that the federal government can tackle. However overturning this mechanism would require a two-thirds majority in each chambers of the German Parliament. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union celebration received 28.6% of the vote – and even with the assist of the nation’s principal center-left celebration, the Social Democrats, Merz will fall in need of the parliamentary votes wanted.
Lastly, “real independence” would additionally require convincing different European Union companions to hitch him down that path. Assuming that the Trump administration continues its present trajectory and additional undermines NATO, the EU must step in to change into a extra outstanding safety actor for the continent. It may additionally require, as Merz hinted, that the UK and France be able to share their nuclear weapons, because the U.S. will not be trusted anymore to defend NATO international locations.
All of those steps would cowl “real independence” solely within the safety sphere and never contact different essential coverage areas, corresponding to commerce and vitality. And that may be an equally tall order given the extent of financial ties binding Germany to the U.S., in addition to the looming risk of tariffs.
What does this imply for German-US relations?
Merz’s “real independence” assertion would have been noteworthy coming from any German chancellor. However it’s much more placing when one considers the truth that Merz is a dedicated transatlanticist who deeply admires the U.S. and counts Ronald Reagan as one in every of his position fashions.
At 69, Merz got here of age in the course of the ultimate years of the Chilly Conflict, when the U.S. performed a key position in enabling German reunification. He labored for years for Atlantik-Brücke, a lobbying group pushing for nearer transatlantic ties. And he has, by his personal account, traveled greater than 100 occasions to the U.S.
Independence won’t probably imply an entire divorce between the U.S. and Germany – the ties binding the 2 international locations, whether or not financial, cultural or political, run too deep. Nonetheless, we will count on that Berlin won’t hesitate to take a extra combative method towards Washington when needed, so to guard German and European pursuits. As Merz identified, it’s clear that the Trump administration does “not care much about the fate of Europe.”
What does this sign for Merz’s view of Germany’s place within the EU?
Merz’s win will definitely result in necessary shifts in Germany’s place within the EU, and could possibly be a serious enhance for a union in want of management. His predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was hampered by a weak financial system, divisions inside his coalition and indecisive management in Europe. Furthermore, poor relations with French President Emmanuel Macron additionally stalled the Franco-German partnership, usually a key engine of management within the EU.
Merz definitely plans to take a really distinct method towards the EU than his predecessor. His requires “real independence” will definitely be very welcome in France, which has lengthy known as for Europe to be extra answerable for its personal safety. As such, it opens up the potential of far nearer ties between Paris and Berlin than we noticed lately. Furthermore, Merz, along with his extra hawkish place towards Russia, could possibly be counted on to offer higher assist for Ukraine.
