The Put up’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Steelers (+3) over BENGALS
One other bodily AFC North affair, which doesn’t essentially lend itself to success for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Temperatures are anticipated to be within the teenagers in Ohio, and Burrow has already stated he’s involved about his surgically repaired wrist within the chilly.
They’re simply not geared up to win in these situations — particularly in opposition to T.J. Watt and the Steelers protection.
Seahawks (+1) over JETS
Geno Smith will get his revenge, because the Jets are in the identical spot as they have been when he departed from the workforce in 2016.
Do you actually envision the Jets having the ability to cowl DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett?
Add in that Professional Soccer Focus ranks the Jets because the sixth-worst run protection whereas the Seahawks have the fifth-best speeding offense, and you’ve got a recipe for catastrophe. Jets lose once more.
Colts (-2.5) over PATRIOTS
New England’s protection isn’t the identical unit Invoice Belichick coached.
It has taken on a complete new type of a hapless unit that has no concept what they’re doing in opposition to the move, permitting the seventh-most yards per move try.
Anthony Richardson has performed higher since being reinserted into the beginning spot and may be capable to use his legs successfully.
Cardinals (+3.5) over VIKINGS
Minnesota ranks No. 1 in defense-adjusted worth over common (DVOA), so it’s honest to anticipate Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to battle a bit.
However the Cardinals are a way more well-rounded unit.
Arizona has the Tenth-best offense, in response to DVOA, and PFF has their offensive line ranked the fourth-best.
Arizona offers the Vikings all the things they’ll deal with after which some.
Titans (+6) over COMMANDERS
Jayden Daniels is clearly banged up and never the participant we noticed take this league by storm within the early weeks of the season.
The Titans have been a workforce I’ve wagered on far an excessive amount of this season, however will proceed to take action in Week 13.
Tennessee will cease the run like they all the time do — they’ve the fourth-best run protection.
Chargers (-1) over FALCONS
Dangerous matchup for my beloved Falcons.
The Chargers have unleashed Justin Herbert, who has speeding touchdowns in two of his previous three video games and is averaging 35.4 speeding yards per recreation.
Atlanta’s protection can’t cope with that, permitting the fifth-most speeding yards to quarterbacks per recreation.
The Chargers even have the seventh-best passing protection in yards per move try allowed, which ought to pose many points for Kirk Cousins.
JAGUARS (+3.5) over Texans
Off a bye week, the Jaguars obtained an opportunity to consider a misplaced season wherein they’re 2-9 and in final place of a nasty AFC South division.
Trevor Lawrence returns, and the Jags have been principally aggressive with him within the lineup.
Other than the embarrassing loss to Detroit, Jacksonville has finished a fantastic job of dropping shut lately — falling in one-score video games to the Packers, Eagles, Texans and Vikings.
Accidents had been a difficulty, however the Jaguars must be free and clear this week to possibly snag a victory in opposition to a division foe.
PANTHERS (+6) over Buccaneers
Bryce Younger was sitting again and throwing dimes in opposition to a powerful Chiefs protection final week.
Now, the Buccaneers are available in because the league’s Twenty first-ranked move protection, in response to DVOA.
Bucky Irving ought to have one other explosive day at operating again, however the Panthers are bettering, and Adam Thielen is a giant a part of that as a consolation blanket for his or her offense.
Rams (-2.5) over SAINTS
New Orleans at house is intriguing, however its move protection is simply too horrible to again.
Puka Nacua will cook dinner this sorry unit, which is permitting 7.2 yards per move try (sixth-worst) and solely getting worse with Marshon Lattimore shipped out.
The Rams win this one due to an environment friendly passing offense surrounded by Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Eagles (+3) over RAVENS
Marquee recreation of the non-prime-time window as Jalen Hurts battles Lamar Jackson.
Each groups are able to taking part in distinctive soccer, however we’ll again the higher protection on this one.
Philadelphia has by far the perfect protection grade this yr in response to PFF, and DVOA likes their run protection as nicely, rated No. 9.
BILLS (-7) over 49ers
A tricky one to name in anticipated snowy situations in Buffalo on Sunday night time.
The 49ers groups up to now can be nicely geared up for this recreation, however Christian McCaffrey seems like a shell of his former self, not slicing with the identical ferocity he did up to now.
Josh Allen can run over a protection that appears ripe to be with out Nick Bosa, arguably their most vital defender.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
BRONCOS (-5.5) over Browns
Jameis Winston can’t maintain getting away with this, and he received’t on “Monday Night Football.”
The Broncos have the sixth-best passing protection, in response to DVOA, and fourth-best protection general.
They’re permitting the second-fewest yards per move try.
Winston goes again to his previous turnover-prone methods in Mile Excessive as Bo Nix leads Denver to a different strong victory.
Final week: 7-5
Season: 76-90-1
