The Put up’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 18 of the NFL season.
Sunday
49ers +4.5 over CARDINALS
Even with out Brock Purdy this week, the 49ers had been simply 3.5-point underdogs to the Lions at residence and are actually +4.5 on the highway to the Cardinals.
How a lot do we expect Purdy is price to the unfold?
San Francisco performed a very tight sport with one of many league’s finest offenses and now faces a horrible Cardinals run protection that has allowed 5 yards per carry since Week 10.
San Francisco is seconds in yards per play this season (6.3) and fifth in yards per play allowed (5.2).
There’s nothing statistically that reveals the 49ers must be underdogs right here as Joshua Dobbs prepares to begin the season finale.
Giants +3 over EAGLES
Usually, the Giants could be 14-point underdogs or worse to the Eagles. Now, the Giants’ “A-Team” will face the “C Team” of the 13-3 Eagles, who nonetheless have loads of expertise all through their roster.
It seems backup QB Kenny Pickett will sit as third-stringer Tanner McKee begins for Philadelphia.
McKee regarded glorious in his NFL debut, however the Giants gamers are nonetheless attempting to win video games, for no matter that’s price.
I wouldn’t wager it personally, however I anticipate the Giants to win a second sport in a row as Brian Daboll makes his case to maintain his job.
PACKERS -10 over Bears
Chicago has the fifth-fewest yards per play within the NFL over the previous three weeks (4.7), and it has the bottom determine general within the NFL this 12 months (4.6).
Neither crew is sitting their starters, so we’re going to get a totally operational Packers offense that has the fifth-best yards per play common.
Chicago’s offensive line is hitting embarrassing ranges — permitting Caleb Williams to be sacked 68 instances, by far probably the most within the league.
FALCONS -8.5 over Panthers
Michael Penix Jr. will not be all that and a bag of chips, however Bijan Robinson definitely is.
He’s tenth in yards per carry, whereas the Panthers allowed an obscene 6.1 yards per carry since Week 11, by far the worst.
Robinson and Tyler Allgeier get loads of runways because the Panthers battle to carry down the fort.
BUCCANEERS -14 over Saints
Not solely are you enjoying the Saints, however you’re enjoying most of their backups.
Alvin Kamara received’t be on the market at working again for the Saints, and Spencer Rattler will get again in there to begin at quarterback instead of injured Derek Carr.
Tampa Bay wants this sport, which we all know, however the Saints have been horrific in current weeks.
They had been shut out by the Packers two weeks in the past and scored simply 10 factors towards the Raiders.
COWBOYS +6.5 over Commanders
Nonetheless enjoying exhausting, simply not enjoying properly. Starters must be on the market for each groups, however the Commanders rely a lot on Jayden Daniels and his legs that even in a sport like this, I anticipate them to take it a bit simpler than traditional.
Daniels had led Washington in dashing yards in three straight video games (all wins) and has taken some brutal hits.
BRONCOS -11 over Chiefs
The Chiefs beat the Chargers final 12 months whereas beginning their backups and now head right into a double bye week after incomes the No. 1 seed within the AFC.
For now the Chiefs are anticipated to begin Carson Wentz, although you must get to know the identify Chris Oladokun in case you are to wager on Kansas Metropolis.
He’s the third-stringer and can certainly get a while because the Chiefs sit almost their complete crew.
COLTS -5 over Jaguars
Pat McAfee needs this whole crew to enter the switch portal, however not earlier than they screw up the Colts’ draft place.
Jacksonville is twenty sixth in defense-adjusted worth over common (DVOA) this season, with their protection rated No. 32.
The Colts ought to win this one straightforward in the event that they haven’t completely give up on their coach.
Texans +1.5 over TITANS
I’m predicting the Titans to go 2-15 towards the unfold, the worst quantity within the NFL since no less than 2003, the newest knowledge was out there.
Houston has performed poorly in current weeks, however the Titans passing offense is unhealthy sufficient (twenty second in DVOA) that they need to be capable to throw sufficient to snag a win.
Houston nonetheless has the No. 2 protection, in keeping with DVOA.
This betting line is unnecessary until Vegas has inside information that the Texans aren’t enjoying this sport severely.
Dolphins -1 over JETS
The Jets can’t cease the run, coming in No. 24 towards it, in keeping with DVOA.
Between De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, there’s no motive this sport must be notably shut, contemplating even Jets gamers are saying that some are mentally checked out.
This crew has no pleasure
Payments -3 over PATRIOTS
New England curiously introduced Drake Maye as questionable to begin. I feel they’ve seen all they’ve wanted this 12 months: a future star.
within the season. Getty Photographs
In the meantime, Buffalo will play a majority of backup gamers whereas Josh Allen takes a seat for Mitch Trubisky.
Chargers -4.5 over RAIDERS
This line suggests the Chargers will play most of their starters, which is the one case for betting them right here. The Raiders are rated No. 27 in DVOA, and the Chargers are No. 9.
Should you look to the sidelines, you’ll see a large mismatch in Jim Harbaugh vs. Antonio Pierce.
Be on excessive alert for the harm reviews right here, however we should challenge this out. Many Chargers gamers, together with J.Ok. Dobbins, have incentives to hit this week.
Assuming starters play their traditional snap depend, we’re just like the Chargers.
Betting on the NFL?
Seahawks -6.5 over RAMS
Geno Smith has a bonus that pays out $2 million if the Seahawks win 10 video games this season, so we all know he needs this one.
The Rams are sitting almost their complete offense as they put together for the playoffs, whereas the Seahawks are out of the playoff hunt.
They need to be capable to snag the win right here with ease.
Vikings +3 over LIONS
Everybody can be betting this one as two of the league’s finest face off in a possible NFC Championship preview.
The Vikings are the more healthy crew on this spot with a stable protection.
For the stat nerds on the market, the best way to beat Sam Darnold is nice zone protection schemes — he has the league third-best QB score towards man protection (124.3) and the twentieth versus zone (93.7).
Detroit performs principally man protection (and performs it properly, with 54.1 % completions, which is second-best), however their zone protection is horrific (74.7 % completions, which is the fifth worst).
Confidently again the Vikings on “Sunday Night Football.”
Final week: 4-7
Season: 109-121-3.
