The Put up’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 17 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Titans +1.5 over JAGUARS
Going 2-13 towards the unfold with a 3-13 report is a fireable offense for Titans coach Brian Callahan. Tennessee waited far too lengthy to bench quarterback Will Levis.
The brand new sign caller is Mason Rudolph, who isn’t something to jot down residence about, however he doesn’t often flip the ball over at a historic charge.
Final week, he threw three interceptions, so don’t maintain your breath that the Titans can determine it out.
The Jaguars protection has the fewest takeaways within the NFL (eight).
Packers +1.5 over VIKINGS
Sharps have been betting the Vikings up, down and sideways since this line opened, as Inexperienced Bay opened as two-point favorites and the road has now flipped to Packers +1.5.
Sharps clearly suppose we’re overreacting to the dominance the Packers have proven not too long ago.
However my mannequin has the Packers listed as a one-point favourite, and DVOA helps it, with Inexperienced Bay ranked No. 3 within the NFL to the Vikings’ No. 6.
It’s the marquee sport of the weekend; sit again and revel in a real playoff sport.
BUCCANEERS -8 over Panthers
Tampa Bay wanted extra time to take the Panthers down in Week 13, however I’m not anticipating that to happen once more for just a few causes.
Carolina has the sixth-fewest yards per play on offense and permits the fifth most yards per play on protection.
The Panthers have ridden Chubba Hubbard to a couple wins and covers as underdogs, however Hubbard is finished for the season and the Buccaneers are permitting simply 2.8 YPC.
Let Bryce Younger throw and you’ll watch him make errors. Bucky Irving smashes to run up the rating in a important division sport.
Colts -7.5 over GIANTS
There’s not a lot you may level to statistically to say that the Giants needs to be greater than a landing canine to the .500 Colts at residence, and nonetheless, I couldn’t even kind an argument to your hard-earned cash being wagered on this crew.
Their offense can’t maintain drives, and the protection doesn’t flip it over.
Their protection additionally struggles towards the run, permitting the fifth most dashing yards per carry this season.
Joe Flacco begins for Indy and loves throwing the ball deep.
The Giants are permitting 58.2 % completions on deep passes, by far the worst quantity within the NFL.
Raiders -1 over SAINTS
The Saints simply obtained shut out by the Packers and regarded utterly inept for many of that sport.
In the meantime the Raiders regarded stable towards the Jaguars and face a crew with the second-worst dashing protection within the NFL (thirty first in run protection DVOA).
Las Vegas seems to be enjoying tougher at this stage and will be trusted together with your cash on Sunday.
Jets +10 over BILLS
The Jets received’t cease teasing what might have been.
Gang Inexperienced is a dwell double-digit underdog due to an enhancing run assault that has resulted in 4.4 YPC of their final three video games and general offense.
They’ve the 18th rated offense in DVOA, forward of the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts, all borderline playoff groups.
The Jets will play this division sport shut sufficient to cowl 10 however doubtless lose one other heartbreaker.
Cowboys +7.5 over EAGLES
Oddsmakers counsel that the downgrade from Jalen Hurts to Kenny Pickett is value simply 4 factors, because the unfold moved from 11.5 to 7.5 after it was introduced Hurts is out with a concussion.
That quantity appears a bit low, contemplating the eighth and ninth factors in a given unfold are almost nugatory.
Dallas is believing proper now, and its protection is forcing turnovers in an enormous means, averaging the fourth most in its final three video games (2.3).
The distinction between Cooper Rush and Pickett is fairly negligible as effectively, even with CeeDee Lamb out this weekend.
Dolphins -6.5 over BROWNS
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is perhaps the worst quarterback within the NFL, and his supporting forged isn’t any higher.
Cleveland is rated No. 32 throughout your complete league in DVOA and has now inserted Thompson-Robinson as quarterback.
He’s thrown only one landing in his NFL profession and couldn’t rating on the Bengals’ horrible cross protection.
He received’t discover way more sanctuary than that. Miami is the Twelfth-best cross protection in yards per cross try (6.5) and eighth-best towards the run (4.3 YPC allowed).
There’s sufficient right here for Miami to cruise.
Falcons +4 over COMMANDERS
The Commanders would possibly simply be the luckiest crew within the NFL.
After successful on a Hail Mary earlier this yr, Washington was within the strategy of being completely waxed by the Eagles on Sunday earlier than Jalen Hurts went down with an damage.
This insane stream of excellent fortune has to finish in some unspecified time in the future.
Atlanta is tenth greatest in yards per play on offense (5.7) and thirteenth greatest in yards per play allowed (5.4).
Most of that was with Kirk Cousins, and Michael Penix needs to be nothing however an improve right here. Atlanta rolls.
Monday
Lions -3.5 over 49ERS
Earlier than the season began, this sport was lined as 49ers -4.5, however now this sport is a shell of its anticipated greatness. It’s the injured versus the battered on “Monday Night Football.”
Detroit remains to be holding onto hope that they’ll snag the No. 1 seed within the NFC whereas Kyle Shanahan’s group performs for delight.
Betting on the NFL?
Their peripheral stats are nonetheless glorious: eleventh greatest in DVOA, fourth greatest in yards per play (6.1), and fourth greatest in yards per play allowed (5.1).
They’ve discovered methods to lose their previous two video games by taking too many sacks (six), not getting any (zero), and turning the ball over (detrimental two turnover differential).
Detroit covers a little bit of a chess match that will probably be a must-win, particularly if the Packers beat the Vikings on Sunday.
Final Week: 6-6-1
Season: 105-114-3
