The Put up’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season.
Sunday
BROWNS +4 over Chiefs
The superior stats hate Kansas Metropolis and dislike this matchup for it. Jameis Winston and the Browns have a strong offense coming collectively that might see some success, because the Chiefs protection is backside 5 within the NFL towards the deep cross.
Ok.C. permits a 53.3 % completion price towards deep passes, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL — forward of simply the Giants (60 %), Panthers (54.8), and Packers (53.8).
Winston is a deep-ball aficionado, so anticipate loads of checks towards a smooth secondary.
Furthermore, Cleveland’s protection nonetheless has the third-best cross rush, in accordance with PFF.
The Chiefs are getting away with a lot proper now that it’s too tough to again them. Cleveland wins outright.
GIANTS +16 over Ravens
At 16 factors, that is the most important unfold within the NFL this 12 months, however possibly it’s one other Tommy Cutlets showcase. Now, nobody is anticipating an upset win, and the Giants most likely don’t even need one.
However Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have sufficient expertise to maintain this inside two scores. Their protection — sans Dexter Lawrence — is taking part in onerous and nicely.
The unit is rated No. 12 in accordance with Professional Soccer focus.
Jets -3.5 over JAGUARS
That is the place I draw the road on disrespect of the Jets.
Very similar to each week, Gang Inexperienced ought to’ve received final week towards a playoff-level workforce. The identical can’t be mentioned in regards to the Jaguars, who’re beginning Mac Jones at quarterback and have the league’s worst protection in accordance with defense-adjusted worth over common (DVOA).
The Jets lastly snag a win and canopy this one simply.
The Aaron Rodgers disrespect is getting out of whack, and now you can lastly purchase a dip on the Jets.
TITANS +5 over Bengals
In some unspecified time in the future, the books have to determine the Titans, proper?
Tennessee is the league’s worst workforce with a painfully dangerous 2-11 mark towards the unfold, someway worse than their total 3-10 report.
In idea, this matchup stacks up fairly nicely towards the Bengals: The Titans have the Fifteenth-best protection in accordance with DVOA and the Thirty first-rated offense.
That might equal out in idea, because the Bengals have the league’s second-worst protection, in accordance with DVOA.
It’s not like their protection is enhancing, both, permitting 6.8 yards per play of their previous three video games, by far the worst determine within the NFL.
They made Cooper Rush look competent final week in a sport they simply might’ve misplaced.
Commanders -7.5 over SAINTS
Marshon Lattimore makes his Commanders debut towards his former workforce.
New Orleans begins Jake Haener at quarterback, which needs to be a nightmare, they usually have the second-worst run protection, in accordance with DVOA.
How the Saints hold this shut is hard to check. Jayden Daniels runs wild.
Cowboys +3 over PANTHERS
There’s nonetheless sufficient right here in Dallas that they shouldn’t be underdogs to the Panthers.
CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle and Micah Parsons are all blue-chip gamers who’re value betting on as underdogs on this sport.
Carolina has the league’s 32-ranked speeding protection (DVOA) and is permitting 5 yards per carry, probably the most within the NFL.
TEXANS -3 over Dolphins
Miami isn’t what it was once, and this matchup is an excessive amount of for them.
The Dolphins are a workforce constructed round brief passing with their speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Texans love coping with brief passing offenses. They permit the bottom completion share is within the NFL on brief passes (fewer than 7 air yards).
Miami throws the fifth-most brief passes within the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the offense.
Houston additionally grabs the second-most interceptions on brief passes, so search for Tagovailoa to wrestle a bit on this one.
BRONCOS -4 over Colts
The very best offensive line within the NFL is the Broncos.
They’ve the No. 1 cross block win price (70 %).
Indianapolis doesn’t possess the expertise on both aspect of the ball to win or cowl this sport at Mile Excessive.
Indianapolis has the Twenty second-rated offense on DVOA. Don’t waste your cash on the Colts, unfold it on Denver.
LIONS -2.5 over Payments
The marquee sport of the week comes up for the Payments in enemy territory.
Each groups have aspirations to make the Tremendous Bowl however have proven some kinks of their armor.
The higher offensive line and protection ought to take this one house, as Detroit performs ball management on the Payments.
Finally, somebody apart from Josh Allen must win.
Steelers +5 over EAGLES
Philadelphia is in full disarray behind the scenes regardless of the on-field product being good on the sector.
The in-state rivalry sport shall be hotly contested and hard-hitting, which performs nicely into the Steelers’ formulation.
They don’t must get into an expansion offense matchup that the Eagles thrive in (the league’s best-passing protection per PFF).
They need to be content material getting right into a slugfest and making no errors to get a victory.
Patriots +6 over CARDINALS
Jerod Mayo might be teaching for his job on this one, particularly taking a look at a tricky end-of-season schedule.
New England has been enhancing defensively — they’ve the seventh-best YPC allowed determine within the NFL (3.9).
Their offense, which has struggled this 12 months (second-worst yards per play within the NFL, 4.7) is enhancing with 5.4 YPP of their previous three.
The Patriots are permitting the fourth-fewest yards per carry to opposing QBs as nicely, so don’t anticipate Kyler Murray to run wild this weekend both.
CHARGERS -3 over Buccaneers
Each groups are badly injured, however that is the place coaches earn their hold. Jim Harbaugh ought to’ve and practically did beat the Chiefs final week with out playmakers J.Ok. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey.
Neither look like trending in path this week, however don’t fret.
The Buccaneers are probably with out RB Bucky Irving this week as nicely. Again the higher protection, because the Chargers have the seventh-best protection in yards per play allowed and DVOA.
Packers -2.5 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has had a tricky time working the ball this season, however their passing offense has grow to be among the many league’s finest due to the Jaxon Smith-Njigba emergence.
The Packers’ accidents have gotten worrisome, and the matchup isn’t ultimate right here, both.
Their 7 yards per cross try allowed is within the backside half of the league and worsening by the week, and Seattle’s protection is definitely graded higher by way of DVOA for the season.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
BEARS +7 over Vikings
It by no means is straightforward to again a workforce that was embarrassed of their interim coach’s debut sport.
However rookie QB Caleb Williams needs to be as much as the duty as they face a tricky Minnesota protection on the highway.
Within the first matchup, a sport the Bears ought to’ve received, Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Seven factors is simply too many right here.
Falcons -4 over RAIDERS
One other time to attract the road within the sand.
It’s all about perceived regression from Kirk Cousins — and it is perhaps actual regression at this level.
Regardless, there isn’t a single place the place the Raiders are higher than the Falcons, who’ve third-best offense per PFF.
That matches up with Desmond Ridder, who was the worst quarterback within the NFL final season, in accordance with PFF. Promote the revenge sport issue and wager the Falcons, who nonetheless have loads to play for.
Final week: 6-5-1
Season: 92-97-2