Alex “Poatan” Pereira is a choose’em worth as he faces Russian wrestling savant Magomed Ankalaev on Saturday at UFC 313.
If that line holds it is going to be his lowest worth since 2023, when he closed at -108 odds in opposition to Jiri Prochazka.
He has not entered a bout as an underdog since he defeated Israel Adesanya with +170 odds in November 2022.
UFC 313’s essential occasion isn’t all we’ve to stay up for, with 12 fights to dive into and wager on.
Final week, we dominated the sector on the Apex by nailing 4 underdog bets and profiting 5.15 items.
The 5-3 exhibiting has introduced us method up the ladder within the profitability division and we’ve solely missed profitability in a single card up to now this yr.
Our whole file is 25-29 this yr, however we’re additionally concentrating on tons of plus-money, long-shot wagers.
We’ve profited 12.4 items this yr with a 22.96 return on funding.
The great instances will hopefully proceed rolling as we transfer onto UFC 313, with early prelims starting at 6:30 p.m. ET and the principle card PPV beginning at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 313 predictions
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
It’s a really binary battle at gentle heavyweight as Pereira showcases maybe one of the best hanging in UFC historical past and undoubtedly within the gentle heavyweight division.
If Pereira connects on Ankalaev’s chin, you’re possible taking a look at a knockout win for the intimidating Brazilian.
Now, Pereira’s takedown protection shouldn’t be good and arguably unhealthy.
However nobody has been capable of grapple him for a constant period of time within the UFC.
In the meantime, Ankalaev had been handed over for this opportunity at preventing the UFC’s greatest star for the title because of the lack of pleasure and urgency within the grappling division.
Ankalaev has stated he received’t grapple on this battle after which backtracked by telling Pereira he might want to grapple for 25 minutes.
It’s unattainable to belief the Russian’s willingness to wrestle all through the 25 minutes.
He was submitted with one second left in a battle in opposition to Paul Craig and simply makes too many errors.
Guess on the intimidating Pereira to win this one by knockout.
PICK: Pereira by KO/TKO (+150, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Justin Gaethje is a legend. He’s been preventing in wars seemingly each time on the market since 2011.
Sooner or later, although, the harm accumulation has to indicate its face in his efficiency.
“The Highlight” is coming off the worst knockout lack of his profession, being drilled with a proper hook from oblivion by Max Holloway.
It might be the tip of the road for a fighter who’s traditionally nice at taking harm and delivering greater than his opponent bargained for.
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These two fighters have fought previously, with Rafael Fiziev got here into that battle as an enormous -225 favourite and dropping a slender break up resolution.
He appeared a lot sooner than Gaethje within the first spherical, earlier than sporting down within the second and narrowly dropping a majority resolution.
Gaethje did poke him within the eye, although, which is a constant downside within the UFC.
Fiziev is extra reliable at this level in his profession even on quick discover.
Based mostly on what we noticed within the first battle in 2023, Fiziev is the man to focus on in what ought to be a wonderful co-main occasion.
PICK: Fiziev moneyline (-162, Caesars)
UFC 313 full card picks (Important and Prelims)
- Alex Pereira (-115) vs. Magomed Ankalaev: Pereira by KO/TKO (+150, Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Justin Gaethje (+136) vs. Rafael Fiziev: Fiziev ML (-162, Caesars)
- Jalin Turner (+110) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes: Battle received’t begin spherical 2 (-110, Bet365)
- Amanda Lemos (+120) vs. Iasmin Lucindo: Lemos moneyline (+120, DraftKings)
- King Inexperienced (+350) vs. Mauricio Ruffy: Ruffy by KO/TKO (+105, Bet365)
- Curtis Blaydes (-325) vs. Rizvan Kuniev: Battle goes the gap (+138, BetRivers)
- Joshua Van (-180) vs. Rei Tsuruya: Rei Tsuruya ML (+165, Caesars)
- Brunno Ferreira (+120) vs. Armen Petrosyan: Petrosyan by resolution (+270, ESPN BET)
- Alex Morono (+550) vs. Carlos Leal: Leal ATS -7.5 (-185, DraftKings) -> Guess wins if Leal wins by end or the choice distinction is greater than 7 factors. (Ex: 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
- Mairon Santos (-300) vs. Francis Marshall: Battle goes the gap (-150, BetRivers)
- Chris Gutierrez (+100) vs. John Castaneda: Castaneda by resolution
- Djorden Santos (-195) vs. Ozzy Diaz: Santos ML + battle begins spherical 2 (-102, FanDuel)
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Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt however he has a black belt in MMA betting. Through the soccer season he’s showcased huge earnings at The Submit within the participant prop market the final two seasons. Whereas consistently betting lengthy pictures, his return on funding is 30.15 p.c since 2022.
