The season of sniffles and coughs has come once more. However whereas influenza and RSV exercise is “moderate and increasing” round California, COVID exercise is unusually low for the vacation season.
The newest weekly replace from the California’s Division of Public Well being exhibits the take a look at positivity fee for flu has risen by practically 4 share factors in every week to 13.2% as of Dec. 14, the newest out there knowledge. The COVID positivity fee is at 2.3%, rising 0.2 share factors from the earlier week.
The well being division’s weekly updates are posted most Fridays, however the respiratory virus studies for the final two weeks of the 12 months are usually not reported till January.
“COVID is rising, but influenza is leading the pack right now,” stated Dr. John Swartzberg, medical professor emeritus on the UC Berkeley Faculty of Public Well being.
Since COVID emerged on the finish of the 2019-2020 respiratory virus season, it has been by far probably the most lethal of the respiratory viruses for which the state tracks and publishes weekly knowledge, although it has killed fewer folks every of the previous couple of years in comparison with early within the pandemic.
Since July 1, there have been 1,873 COVID deaths throughout California — with the summer time surge not subsiding till late August — and 89 flu deaths.
After the late summer time surge, COVID deaths as soon as once more reached new lows, and testing, hospitalizations and deaths are simply now beginning to present indicators of a rise as we head into the brand new 12 months.
“If you look at wastewater data, COVID is clearly rising throughout the United States and certainly in California,” Swartzberg stated.
In Santa Clara County, wastewater measurements present the identical sample. County public well being officers monitor native wastewater and take a look at for concentrations of the viruses in 4 native sewersheds. In line with aggregated wastewater surveillance knowledge monitored by the state well being division, COVID ranges in the whole Bay Space area have simply crossed from low to medium and are growing.
Influenza concentrations began to rise in November and have continued to rise by means of December. RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, has been on the rise since late November. Swartzberg stated that RSV could have peaked, however COVID continues to be anticipated to surge later within the season.
COVID has been at low concentrations within the county’s 4 sewersheds for the reason that center of October after a chronic surge that lasted from June by means of August, with concentrations measuring at excessive concentrations for a lot of that point across the county.
Now COVID ranges appear to be the bottom they’ve been in December prior to now a number of years. “It’s looking better than last year, and last year was the best winter we had,” Swartzberg stated.
Regardless that COVID vaccination numbers are decrease than they have been within the first years of their availability, some immunity from this summer time’s surge continues to be lingering locally. However the quantity of people that have acquired the newest vaccination is “disappointingly low,” in Swartzberg’s opinion. Influenza vaccination charges are greater however nowhere close to early COVID vaccination charges.
A brand new RSV vaccine, which is beneficial for the very younger, these over 75 and another high-risk folks, is likely to be contributing to the general enchancment in charges of that virus this 12 months in comparison with final 12 months, Swartzberg stated. For the reason that starting of this respiratory virus season on July 1, California has reported 21 deaths as a result of virus, together with 4 youngsters, in comparison with 33 on the identical level final 12 months. “RSV looks like it’s on track for a better year,” he stated.
And whereas rather a lot has modified, together with the prevalence of COVID at this 12 months’s vacation dinner tables in comparison with the previous couple of years, Swartzberg’s basic recommendation has not: “Please get immunized. It’s not too late.”
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