Egg costs are already steep – and may be getting worse.
The common value of a dozen Grade A giant eggs was $4.15 throughout the month of December, mentioned the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – a rise from $2.51 in December 2023.
There are two issues driving the value will increase: the chook flu outbreak and state legal guidelines about cage-free eggs.
Patrick Penfield, a professor and provide chain skilled at Syracuse College’s College of Administration, instructed Nexstar Media that egg costs may rise by as a lot as 20% earlier than the yr is over.
Which means the common value of a dozen giant eggs may very well be practically $5 by the tip of 2025, which might be the highest-ever recorded common value for a dozen eggs.
The earlier excessive egg value was in January 2023, when the common value of a dozen giant eggs was $4.82. By August 2023, nevertheless, the common value had dropped to $2.04.
Penfield predicted that egg costs may exceed that report as quickly as February.
The present chook flu outbreak, which is technically often called “Highly pathogenic avian influenza” (HPAI), has resulted in a report variety of deaths of egg-laying hens, the US Division of Agriculture (USDA) mentioned in a latest report.
Within the final quarter of 2024, greater than 20 million egg-laying hens died.
“Unlike in past years, in 2024, all major production systems experienced significant losses, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic types,” mentioned the USDA.
As soon as chook flu is detected, a farm should cull all of the birds within the flock. This has had a devastating influence on the egg business, because it takes roughly 5 months for a rooster to mature.
“Once a hen is five months old it can lay about one egg per day,” mentioned Penfield.
Presently, there aren’t any vaccines or medical remedies towards chook flu, he mentioned.
The one protection is “biosecurity practices” – holding chickens protected from wild birds and away from people, holding enclosures lined, and “reducing large puddles and standing water.”
Penfield hopes that chickens will develop “some sort of natural immunity” towards the outbreak, however warned Nexstar that this might take years.
“We have not seen that yet and it will take many years for that to happen,” Penfield instructed Nexstar. “Also, if they do, we do not know if this immunity would protect hens if the bird flu virus mutated.”
Aside from chook flu, a number of states have legal guidelines requiring that each one eggs offered to be “cage-free,” which means the birds will not be raised in cages. These are usually costlier than typical eggs even absent an outbreak of chook flu.
Whereas egg skilled Lisa Steele instructed Fox Information Digital that pasture-raised chickens produce the “gold standard” of eggs, these birds are at an elevated danger of sickness.
“Poultry get HPAI from infected waterfowl (ducks and geese) and gulls, which may frequent wetlands on farms. Thus, poultry raised outdoors or with outdoor access are at greater risk of HPAI,” mentioned the College of Minnesota’s web site on avian influenza.
“Infected poultry can spread disease to new flocks through contact with birds, people, manure and equipment. HPAI viruses can exist in bird waste for several months, especially under high-moisture and low-temperature conditions,” mentioned the College of Minnesota.
