“Wicked” has claimed victory at one of many first main stops on the street to the 2025 Oscars.
Because the opening lyric of Stephen Schwartz’s musical goes, “Good news!”
Or is it?
On Wednesday, the Nationwide Board of Evaluation named the big-budget adaptation of the Broadway present its high movie of the yr.
Including to the haul, the movie’s Jon M. Chu gained greatest director.
His stars, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, in the meantime, didn’t take house greatest actress and supporting actress (these respectively went to Nicole Kidman for “Babygirl” and Elle Fanning for “A Complete Unknown”).
As a substitute, the green-and-pink duo bought a mixed particular award for “Creative Collaboration.”
Earlier than you hop on a Swifter and begin belting “Defying Gravity,” there’s only one drawback with these honors — statistically, they’re curses.
The group’s document is spotty, to say the least.
NBR’s greatest image winner has solely gone on to win the highest Academy Award 3 times prior to now 24 years: “No Country For Old Men” (2007), “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008) and “Green Book” (2018).
That’s barely a 12% success price since Y2K.
The identical quantity applies to their rocky greatest director Oscars overlap: Steven Soderbergh (“Traffic,” 2000), Ang Lee (“Brokeback Mountain,” 2005) and Martin Scorsese (“The Departed,” 2006).
If I used to be Common, I might be “loathing” these odds.
The style of the Nationwide Board of Evaluation — a New York-based group made up of, in line with its web site, “enthusiasts, filmmakers, professionals, academics and students,” not often aligns with that of the Oscars, a bunch of 9,375 Hollywood professionals.
The Academy’s administrators department, as an example, which chooses their Greatest Director class, tends to favor craft over recognition.
Final yr it nominated Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer, whose “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” had zero dance numbers or flying monkeys.
The kick-off week for award season has been crowded. The Gotham Awards topped their winner, “A Different Man,” and the Unbiased Spirit Awards additionally introduced their nominees Wednesday.
As each honor indies, “Wicked” was about as ineligible because it will get.
The New York Movie Critics Circle gave “The Brutalist” their largest honor, which additionally not often goes on to snag the Oscar.
However the one title up to now to wind up talked about by each considered one of these organizations is the terrific “Anora.”
It was nominated for greatest image by the Indie Spirits and Gothams, and gained greatest screenplay on the NYFCC.
Sean Baker’s New York-set comedy additionally is without doubt one of the Nationwide Board of Evaluation’s 11 greatest movies of the yr, which, apart from it and “Wicked,” additionally embody: “Babygirl,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Gladiator II,” “Juror #2,” “Queer,” “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing.”
If historical past holds, roughly half of these gained’t make the Oscars Greatest Image nominee lower. “Wicked” and “Anora” will.
The previous sports activities saying goes “stats are for losers,” and maybe the musical will defy the percentages.
In spite of everything, it has been an odd yr with none award season juggernauts or pundit consensus. Individuals are searching for one thing strong to understand onto.
Within the subsequent 5 days come the telling AFI Awards and the Golden Globe nominations, the place the “Wizard of Oz” riff ought to do properly.
Followers will likely be praying the Oscars race has been modified … for good.
