In lots of seasons, the Tremendous Bowl choice for this area is made at round 6 p.m. on the Thursday earlier than the Large Recreation, simply in time to make the print deadline.
That’s not the case this time. Fairly, this choose already has been revealed, again on Sept. 4 in The Put up’s 2024 NFL particular part.
Those that purchased into the prognostication of Eagles over Chiefs in Sunday’s Tremendous Bowl could be holding a +6600 (66/1) ticket at BetMGM and have the chance to both double down or hedge to ensure a large revenue.
It could be nice if I have been a kind of folks, however I’ve had too lots of my preseason Tremendous Bowl groups find yourself underneath .500 or with an injured quarterback over time to need to tie up an excessive amount of cash for 5 months on a lottery ticket.
The opposite factor is that this wager has not but gained. All of the Eagles should do is defeat the Chiefs, the two-time defending champions who’re on the cusp of the NFL’s first Tremendous Bowl three-peat. They should discover a approach to remedy Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, arguably a top-three quarterback-coach duo in NFL historical past.
Listed here are among the causes I consider the Eagles will make it occur.
l Saquon Barkley: The previous Large who’s inflicting proprietor John Mara to lose plenty of sleep has reworked the Philadelphia offense. It now has a bellcow runner working behind a superb offensive line, and his dominance solely serves to make the Eagles’ different weapons — A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith — all of the extra harmful.
Barkley ran for two,005 yards, making him the ninth to hit that milestone. He had wanted 101 yards to interrupt Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old report however was held out of the meaningless final recreation together with many of the Eagles’ different starters.
How nice has Barkley been? He averaged 5.8 yards per carry within the common season and has upped that to six.7 yards per carry within the playoffs. It’s straightforward to do the maths and see how easy it’s for the Eagles to get first downs, transfer the chains, maintain the clock shifting and the ball out of Mahomes’ arms.
However greater than being only a grinder, Barkley can also be a home-run hitter. Within the Nov. 24 recreation in opposition to the Rams in L.A., he had landing runs of 70 and 72 yards. His dance card additionally contains runs of 78 yards (within the playoffs vs. the Rams), 68, 65, 60 (within the playoffs vs. the Commanders), 59 and 55.
Defenses can’t cease him even after they know he’s getting the ball. The playoff landing vs. Washington got here on the Eagles’ first play from scrimmage within the recreation. The 70-yarder in L.A. got here on the primary play of the second half.
The general numbers are mind-boggling — 14 video games (out of 19) with not less than 100 yards, eight video games with not less than 146 yards, a median of 129 yards per recreation.
In the meantime, the Chiefs protection, which was good in opposition to the run within the common season, has been dealt with within the playoffs. The Texans ran for 149 yards on 5.1 yards per carry within the divisional spherical, and the Payments rolled up 147 floor yards on 4.6 yards per carry earlier than they mysteriously turned away from James Cook dinner.
l The refs: After all we’re going right here! The officiating dynamic has dominated the previous two weeks of dialog heading into the Tremendous Bowl.
This all began two years in the past in Tremendous Bowl LVII when a defensive holding penalty in opposition to the Eagles’ James Bradberry principally sealed Kansas Metropolis’s 38-35 victory.
Then the 2023 season noticed a handful of decisive calls go the Chiefs’ means. On this column we had some enjoyable with the conspiracy principle that the league was enjoying up the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship, was benefiting from the elevated rankings and jersey gross sales to the Swifties, and was hell-bent on getting Taylor and her tens of millions of followers to the Tremendous Bowl.
This previous season, there have been extra curious calls, such because the one within the Raiders recreation when Clay Martin referred to as a game-ending unlawful shift as an alternative of a false begin that may have nullified a Raiders fumble and given them an opportunity at a protracted subject objective to win the sport.
And within the playoffs, all eyes have been on two private foul penalties on the Texans on hits on Mahomes (ESPN’s Troy Aikman went nuts on one in every of them), and a disputed catch and controversial spot within the Payments recreation.
Prior to now few days, Wealthy Eisen, NFL Community’s main man for 21 years, gave comic Invoice Burr a platform on his radio present to query whether or not the video games are mounted. Commissioner Roger Goodell trashed the “ridiculous theory,” not one thing you normally hear in a state-of-the-league deal with. And Scott Inexperienced, the chief of the refs union, mentioned Goodell was “spot on” and that it’s “insulting and preposterous to hear conspiracy theories that somehow 17 officiating crews consisting of 138 officials are colluding to assist one team.”
As Shakespeare wrote in “Hamlet” about 620 years in the past: “The lady doth protest too much.”
However severely, the purpose is that this: The warmth of the highlight is on the refs and each name made on this recreation. The repute and integrity of the NFL is in query. I consider the Eagles will get a good whistle, a good flag, a good replay overview. And in the event that they do, that needs to be sufficient as a result of …
l The analytics … of the sport barely favor the Eagles.
I don’t sometimes commit plenty of phrases to the deeper numbers within the rationalization of my picks through the season, however there’s one stat that appears to be extra vital than others. That’s DVOA, or defense-adjusted worth over common. This metric measures the success of an NFL crew in comparison with the league common by adjusting for down and distance, power of the opponent, even subject situations.
In total DVOA for the common season plus playoffs, the Eagles ranked third and Chiefs sixth. Within the common season, it was Eagles fifth and Chiefs eighth.
On offense, the Chiefs ranked eighth for the season and the Eagles thirteenth. Defensively, Philadelphia was No. 1 and Kansas Metropolis No. 12.
Betting on the NFL?
Most of these numbers give the Eagles a small edge. Not a lot, however when the unfold is that this small, it could possibly be sufficient. On the very least, it offers you the notion that the Chiefs aren’t an almighty and unbeatable crew.
l The parallel: Lastly, this Tremendous Bowl matchup has an analogous vibe to Eagles-Patriots in February 2018. Tom Brady and Invoice Belichick have been the quarterback-coach gold commonplace, the Patriots had gained 5 earlier Tremendous Bowls, and the best way they did it (unimaginable interception vs. Seattle and 28-3 comeback vs. Atlanta) made it look as in the event that they couldn’t presumably lose.
The Eagles beat them 41-33 with backup QB Nick Foles and the legendary Philly Particular trick play.
The picks: Eagles +1.5 and Over 48.5 (BetMGM)
Eagles 30, Chiefs 27.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Eagles (Locks 10-11 in 2024-25).
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK: 3-1 total (2-0 sides, 1-1 Over/Underneath).
