May the Giants discover their quarterback of the longer term by revisiting their current previous?
The Giants bypassed J.J. McCarthy and as a substitute chosen receiver Malik Nabers with the No. 6 decide of the 2024 NFL Draft after conducting intensive in-person homework on the quarterback who guided Michigan to a nationwide championship.
“Malik was our guy,” normal supervisor Joe Schoen mentioned when requested about selecting between these two prospects. “He was the guy we targeted.”
One yr later, the Vikings, who drafted McCarthy with the No. 10 decide, might use him as a commerce chip in the event that they re-sign shock Professional Bowler Sam Darnold to an enormous extension as a substitute of franchise-tagging Darnold.
Would the Giants provide the No. 3 decide in 2025? Ought to they?
McCarthy as soon as was a polarizing scouting analysis contained in the Giants, however circumstances change: The quarterback want is larger now, and the highest two choices within the 2025 draft class — Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward — is likely to be simply out of attain.
The Publish requested a number of NFL sources whether or not the Giants ought to commerce No. 3 for McCarthy, working underneath assumptions that he can be graded increased than Sanders and Ward and that the Vikings will entertain gives.
Why the Giants ought to do it
If Sanders and Ward are going to be the top-two picks, the Giants might want to commerce a number of picks to the quarterback-needy Titans (No. 1) or Browns (No. 2) to maneuver up. It feels like an enormous danger when the early consensus in scouting circles is that neither Sanders nor Ward would have been increased than the fourth-best quarterback within the 2024 class.
Swapping spots from No. 3 to No. 2 to safe a quarterback (Mitch Trubisky) price the Bears two third-rounders and a fourth-rounder in a commerce with the 49ers in 2017.
So, the Giants would purchase a greater participant in McCarthy for a lesser price: simply the No. 3 decide as a substitute of No. 3 and extra. And McCarthy solely could be owed a discount $8.3 million complete over three seasons (as a substitute of the usual four-year rookie contract).
“I would do it if it’s a given that I had him higher than this year’s quarterbacks — and some teams won’t have one or both of [Sanders and Ward] at that level,” an NFC government mentioned. “Once you get J.J., you find ways to keep good players. If you think a quarterback is talented, I don’t care if you get him for No. 3, No. 6 or No. 9.”
McCarthy additionally would arrive with the good thing about having spent his rookie yr in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-maker system. There was pre-injury buzz that McCarthy may win the Week 1 beginning job after his spectacular preseason debut.
“When J.J. got hurt, I thought it might have been the best thing that ever happened to him,” the chief mentioned, “because he gets a redshirt year under Kevin.”
ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. mentioned not too long ago on “Unsportsmanlike” that the Giants ought to commerce No. 3 for McCarthy.
“If you look at his grade last year compared to the grades this year of the quarterbacks,” Kiper mentioned, “he would be the No. 1 guy.”
The worth of No. 3 within the 2025 draft additionally may very well be lower than the worth of No. 6 in 2024.
“Not all draft classes are the same,” one former NFL government mentioned. “Last year’s first-round class was particularly strong.”
Why the Giants shouldn’t do it
For the reason that Giants handed on McCarthy, he has undergone two knee surgical procedures (torn meniscus) and hasn’t thrown a regular-season cross.
The unknown in regards to the damage is a serious disadvantage, however all trades are made pending physicals, so the Giants might deliver McCarthy in for a medical analysis earlier than a closing dedication.
“There’s no way to know for sure about his knee until he’s on the field,” one NFC scout mentioned. “I wouldn’t do it. Would you buy a car if all you saw was a very nice picture on FaceTime and then were told, ‘It got in a minor fender-bender, but it’s good as new now?’ His ability to make plays with his legs was one of his main tools.”
The optics would reek of hot-seat desperation by Schoen if the Giants determined {that a} wholesome McCarthy was undeserving of No. 6 in 2024 however is worthy of No. 3 after a season-ending damage and with fewer years of crew management.
“I like McCarthy as a prospect more than Sanders and Ward based on grades,” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller mentioned, “but I wouldn’t trade No. 3. I think it’s bad value for something you haven’t seen. How much was he really able to do this year to learn to put him in a position to play next year?”
Second-guesses would go like this: The Giants ought to’ve drafted McCarthy over Nabers as insurance coverage for Daniel Jones failing, given the rookie a style of motion in a misplaced season after which gotten McCarthy a No. 1 receiver like Tetairoa McMillan in 2025.
“I wouldn’t make the decision until late April,” the NFC government mentioned. “I have three months to gather more information — and evaluate the top-five non-quarterbacks — before I have to pull the trigger.”
What would the Vikings assume?
After 20 years of watching the rival Packers groom quarterback successors with four-year plans — Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love — the Vikings may wish to copy that blueprint.
Nevertheless, it might be engaging for a crew coming off a 14-3 season so as to add a high-impact defensive starter to load up for a possible Tremendous Bowl run in 2025.
The Vikings additionally might replenish their draft capital after two first-round trades in 2024 left them with only a first-rounder and two fifth-rounders in 2025.
However is it engaging sufficient to just about double McCarthy’s salary-cap cost? Retaining him as a backup would price $4.96 million whereas buying and selling him would speed up a $9.53 million dead-cap cost.
“I’m not doing it for them,” the NFC government mentioned. “It’s too hard to find your guy. If you think it’s McCarthy, I’m keeping both Darnold and McCarthy as long as possible.”
The irony is that the Vikings, who’re flush with $71.33 million in salary-cap house, in keeping with overthecap.com, might re-sign Giants’ cast-off Daniel Jones as Darnold’s backup — probably for a duplicate of Darnold’s one-year, $10 million contract in 2024.
“I don’t think the Vikings can know right now,” Kiper mentioned. “I’m letting this all play out.”
Different machinations of a commerce
Buying McCarthy for only a second-round decide just like the Dolphins did in 2019 when the Cardinals moved on from Josh Rosen after one season is unrealistic, although the NFC scout he would think about that as a “fallback plan” if it turned an choice.
However what if the Giants bought inventive? May they commerce down throughout the high 10, stockpile different picks after which commerce their later top-10 decide for McCarthy whereas convincing the Vikings that it’s nonetheless higher worth than when he was picked at No. 10?
“If No. 3 becomes No. 7,” the present government mentioned, “then you get J.J. and maybe two other pieces of the rebuild puzzle.”
May the Giants commerce No. 3 and a mid-round decide for McCarthy and the Vikings’ first-round decide (projected to be No. 28 pending the result of the playoffs)?
No. 3 is valued at 2,200 factors, No. 28 at 660 factors and No. 10 (McCarthy) at 1,300 factors on the Jimmy Johnson-created commerce worth chart. So, the mathematics works out however …
“I don’t think Minnesota will trade McCarthy,” Miller mentioned.
