The acclamation of Alexander Lukashenko as Belarus president for a seventh straight time period was confirmed on January 26. The electoral authorities introduced that the person often called “Europe’s last dictator” – the one president the nation has had because it held its first “democratic” election in 1994 – had gained 87% of the vote.
Most western leaders have dismissed the consequence as a “sham”. Germany’s overseas minister, Annalena Baerbock, posted on X that “the people of Belarus had no choice”, whereas the Polish overseas minister, Radosław Sikorski, commented that he was shocked “only” 87.6% of the voters had voted for Lukashenko: “Will the rest fit inside the prisons?” he requested.
However the consequence was by no means actually unsure. Sikorski’s barb about jailing opponent figures is true on the cash. A lot of Belarus’s principal opposition figures are already behind bars and the remaining are in exile. And, simply to verify of issues, properly earlier than the marketing campaign began – in January 2024 – Lukashenko modified the legislation in order that solely these individuals who had been had lived completely in Belarus for 20 years might stand for the presidency. This meant that probably the most distinguished opposition chief not now in jail in Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was ineligible.
Tsikhanouskaya fled after the election to keep away from the destiny of her husband, Sergei Tsikhanouski, who was arrested in 2020, two days after declaring his candidacy for the election. He has since been jailed for 18 years on prices of “preparation of mass disorder” and “incitement to hatred”. Tsikhanouskaya was herself tried in absentia and sentenced to fifteen years for prime treason, inciting social hatred, makes an attempt to grab energy, forming an “extremist” group and harming nationwide safety.
So with no actual opposition allowed to face, Lukashenko’s reelection was just about a foregone conclusion. A survey performed by the suppose tank Chatham Home on the finish of 2024 discovered that about one-third of Belarusians stated they supported Lukashenko – and most of those folks additionally commented they thought the nation was entering into the appropriate course.
Maintaining Belarus out of the battle was a significant component for these voters. An additional 41% professed to be impartial. When it got here to electoral integrity, 36% agreed or considerably agreed that the consequence was predetermined. Amongst pro-democracy voters that quantity rose to 77%.
Authorities in exile
Tsikhanouskaya leads a authorities in exile from Lithuania, heading what her workforce has referred to as a “united transitional cabinet”, tasked with “ensuring the transition of power from dictatorship to democracy, and promoting fair and free elections”. The cupboard is supported by a nationwide coordinating council of 70 members which is elected on a two-yearly foundation and who principal perform is to ascertain the bottom guidelines for a “ democratic and rule-of-law-based state”.
Tsikhanouskaya’s efforts have been supported by a spread of nations, together with the US which, in August 2020, urged the Lukashanko regime to “actively engage Belarusian society, including through the newly established National Coordination Council, in a way that reflects what the Belarusian people are demanding, for the sake of Belarus’ future, and for a successful Belarus”.
However being a pacesetter in exile means it’s troublesome to bridge the barrier to Belarusians at residence.
Political prisoners
Different opposition figures are primarily nonetheless in jail. Sergei Tsikhanouski was not too long ago was charged with violating jail guidelines, which can improve his present 18-year sentence.
His fellow opposition chief, Viktar Babaryka – who was additionally arrested within the run-up to the 2020 election – was given 14 years on trumped-up up prices. His assistant Maria Kolesnikova, who took over from him as a protest chief, was jailed after publicly destroying her passport so she couldn’t be forcibly exiled by the authorities.
Trustworthy ally: Lukashenko with Vladimir Putin at a gathering of the Supreme Eurasian Financial Council in St Petersburg in December 2024.
EPA-EFE/Gavril Grigorov/Spunik/Kremlin pool
Though not a part of the political opposition one other distinguished determine, Ales Bialiatski, a human rights activist who gained the Nobel peace prize in 2022 was sentenced to 10 years in jail in 2023 for smuggling and allegedly financing the 2020 protests.
Overtures to the west
For the reason that summer time of 2024, 200 political prisoners have been launched, a doable signal that Lukashenko desires to reset relations with the west. He did one thing comparable in 2015, the 12 months after Russia annexed Crimea.
On the time his launch of six opposition activists was seen as a doable signal the Belarus chief was involved his nation could possibly be in danger from Russian aggression and he was seeking to preserve with the EU and the US.
Kolesnikova was not too long ago allowed a jail go to from her father for the primary time in practically two years. In the meantime a journalist was given entry to Babaryka in jail and allowed to file a video of the jailed dissident for his daughter.
If the discharge of prisoners and reappearance of the 2 jailed dissidents are certainly an try and reset relations with the west, the very fact he nonetheless has greater than 1,000 political prisoners behind bars will give Lukashenko loads of diplomatic leeway.
However given Lukashenko’s shut alignment with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the truth that he allowed Belarus for use as a launch pad for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s unlikely that many western international locations will probably be gained over.
Lukashenko has proven himself to be an irritant many occasions through the years. In 2021, the 12 months earlier than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Belarus chief was roundly criticised for making an attempt to spark a migrant disaster in neighbouring Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Belarus was reportedly flying Iraqi and Afghan migrants from the Center East and bussing them to the border the place Belarusian troops had been making an attempt to push them throughout.
So far as armed resistance to Lukashenko is anxious, the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, a gaggle of Belarusian volunteers has been combating as a part of Ukraine’s armed forces since March 2022. The regiment’s said goal is to assist Ukraine struggle off Russia and turn into a part of the EU and Nato and to attempt for Belarus to do the identical.
The following election is because of be held in 2030. Alexander Lukashenko will probably be 75.
