The swift and surprising fall of the Syrian capital, Damascus, to Sunni opposition forces marks a pivotal second within the trendy historical past of the Center East.
Bashar al-Assad’s regime had withstood greater than a decade of uprisings, civil battle and worldwide sanctions because the onset of widespread protests in 2011. But, it collapsed in a remarkably brief time frame.
This sudden flip of occasions, with the opposition advancing with out important battles or resistance, has left regional powers scrambling to evaluate the fallout and its broader implications.
This dramatic improvement alerts a reshuffling of energy dynamics within the area. It additionally raises questions on Syria’s future and the position of its neighbours and world stakeholders in managing the post-Assad panorama.
Supporters of the Syrian opposition residing in Turkey wave the Syrian flag of the opposition and have fun the insurgent takeover of Damascus a mosque in Istanbul.
Erdem Sahin/EPA
What does the long run maintain for Syria?
With the collapse of the Assad regime, Syria now finds itself fragmented and divided amongst three dominant factions, every with exterior backers and distinct targets:
1. Syrian opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: These teams, supported by Turkey, now management central Syria, extending from the northern border with Turkey to the southern border with Jordan.
Though they share a standard spiritual id, the Sunni factions have a historical past of inside conflicts, which might hinder their means to kind a cohesive authorities or preserve long-term stability.
The opposition forces vary from former jihadists coming from Islamic State and al-Qaeda to secular teams such because the Syrian Nationwide Military, which cut up from Assad’s military after the 2011 rebellion.
2. Kurdish forces: The Kurdish teams management territory in northeastern Syria, bordering Turkey within the north and Iraq within the east. They proceed to obtain assist from the USA, which has established army bases within the space. This assist dangers escalating tensions with Turkey, which views Kurdish empowerment as a risk to its territorial integrity.
3. Alawite forces: Professional-Assad Alawite factions, primarily located within the coastal areas of western Syria, preserve sturdy ties with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group. These areas might function a stronghold for remnants of Assad-aligned teams after the opposition’s takeover, perpetuating sectarian divides.
The stark divisions amongst these teams, mixed with the absence of a mutually acceptable mediator, recommend that Syria might now face extended instability and battle.
How will this influence the area?
The swift fall of the Assad regime has profound implications for the main gamers within the Center East.
The Sunni insurgent forces, with sturdy Turkish backing, capitalised on a second of vulnerability in Syria. The Assad regime’s allies had been preoccupied — Russia with its ongoing battle in Ukraine, and Iran and its proxies with their ongoing battle with Israel. This supplied a strategic alternative for the rebels to advance swiftly throughout Syria to the capital, Damascus.
Turkey already successfully controls a strip of territory in northern Syria, the place its army has been combating Syrian Kurdish forces. Now, with the victory of its Syrian opposition allies, Turkey is predicted to broaden its political and army affect in Syria, inflicting extra challenges for the Kurdish minority combating for its autonomy.
Iranian Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi (left) meets with Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan to dicuss the Syrian disaster in Doha, Qatar, on December 7.
Iranian Overseas Ministry/EPA
Israel can be in a strategically higher place. The autumn of Assad disrupts the so-called “axis of resistance”, comprised of Iran, Syria and Tehran’s proxy teams like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Iran’s important army provide traces to Hezbollah will probably be severed, isolating the militant group and certain weakening it even additional.
Moreover, the fragmentation of Syria into ethnic and non secular factions might diminish the regional give attention to Israel, offering house for it to pursue its broader strategic targets. After Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah final month, for instance, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasised a shift in focus to countering the “Iranian threat”.
Iran, in the meantime, has probably the most to lose. Assad was a vital ally in Iran’s regional proxy community. And the collapse of his authorities follows the numerous harm that Israel has already inflicted on its different companions, Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran’s regional affect has now been severely diminished, leaving it extra weak to direct battle with Israel.
Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proper, speaks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in Could 2024.
Workplace of the Iranian Supreme Chief/AP
The fragmentation of Syria additionally poses important safety dangers to its neighbouring international locations – Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Refugee flows, cross-border violence and sectarian tensions are more likely to escalate. Turkey is already internet hosting greater than 3 million Syrian refugees – a lot of whom it hopes will return dwelling now that Assad’s authorities is gone.
For Iraq and Lebanon, this instability might exacerbate their fragile political and financial conditions. The Balkanisation of Syria alongside ethnic and non secular traces might encourage different teams within the area to insurgent towards governments within the pursuit of their very own autonomy. This dangers entrenching divisions and prolonging battle throughout the area.
Whereas many Syrians have celebrated Assad’s fall, it stays to be seen whether or not their lives will enhance a lot. With the absence of a unified and internationally recognised authorities in Syria, sanctions are unlikely to be lifted. It will additional pressure an already devastated Syrian economic system, deepening the humanitarian disaster and probably fuelling extremism.
