The brutal 54-year reign of the Assad household in Syria appears to be like to be over.
In a matter of days, opposition forces took the foremost metropolis of Aleppo earlier than advancing southward into different government-controlled areas of Hama, Homs and at last, on Dec 7, 2024, the capital, Damascus.
The offensive was all of the extra astonishing provided that the 13-year civil conflict had largely been in a stalemate since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey.
Reviews counsel President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and left the nation. However what has he left behind and what occurs subsequent?
As an professional on Center East safety, I imagine the opposition forces’ capability to take care of unity will probably be important within the transition to a post-Assad Syria. For the reason that civil conflict began in 2011, the numerous opposition factions in Syria have been fractured by ideological variations and the pursuits of exterior backers – and that is still true regardless of their present victory.
In the meantime, the fast change of fortunes in Syria’s civil conflict poses critical questions for these international locations which have backed one aspect or the opposite within the battle. For Iran and Russia, the autumn of their ally Assad will harm regional aspirations. For the backers of parts of the opposition – notably Turkey but additionally the U.S., each of which keep a navy presence in Syria – there will probably be challenges, too.
Fears of a ‘catastrophic success’
Iran, the U.S., Russia and Turkey have been essential gamers all through Syria’s civil conflict.
The current opposition offensive got here as Assad’s three key allies — Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — have been stretched skinny. Russia’s give attention to Ukraine and Iran’s setbacks from Israeli strikes have restricted their capability to offer Assad sturdy help, whereas Hezbollah appeared hesitant to commit further fighters, because it had completed beforehand.
Then, on Dec. 2, as opposition forces have been on the transfer, Russia started withdrawing naval property from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. This erosion of exterior backing considerably undermined Assad’s capability to regroup and mount an efficient counteroffensive.
Syrians rejoice the autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s authorities within the city of Bar Elias, Lebanon, close to the border with Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024.
AP Photograph/Hassan Ammar
The U.S. will little doubt welcome this diminished Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However concern in Washington has already been aired over a state of affairs of “catastrophic success” wherein Assad is changed by an Islamist group that many within the West see as terrorists.
It was members of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that spearheaded a lot of the opposition beneficial properties in Syria, combating alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military.
And whereas Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has indirectly focused the U.S. troops stationed within the northeast – which is below the management of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces – instability and the potential for clashes between opposition factions and U.S. allies might enhance the dangers for the 900 Syria-based American personnel.
A fragmented panorama
The truth that totally different opposition teams have taken management of varied once-government-held areas factors to a vital truth: Syria is de facto partitioned. The northwest is managed by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military. The northeast is below the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by the USA.
Regardless of a shared objective of ousting Assad and the joint offensive on Aleppo, conflicts between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Nationwide Military are frequent. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani goals to say management over opposition-held areas, together with these presently managed by the Syrian Nationwide Military.
And the Syrian Nationwide Military and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham keep advanced, typically conflicting relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces, formed by ideological, territorial and strategic variations. The Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military incessantly engages in direct clashes with the Syrian Protection Forces, which Turkey views as a terrorist group and an offshoot of the Kurdistan Employees Get together it has been combating in southern Turkey for greater than 4 a long time.
The opposition’s inner fragmentation might weaken its capability to deliver stability to Syria in the long term.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s help for his Syrian counterpart seems diminished because of the conflict in Ukraine.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Pictures
Adjustment issues
Assad’s fall can have main implications for these international locations which have a stake within the area.
Iran’s grand technique of preserving the “Shia Crescent” — connecting Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and Damascus and within the course of countering Sunni Islamist factions — has failed.
For Washington, Assad’s departure doesn’t essentially match any hoped-for end result.
The U.S. has prioritized balancing, containing and probably diminishing Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However till just lately that didn’t imply the elimination of Assad. The Biden administration had even hinted in early December that it might be ready to carry sanctions on Syria if Assad severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah.
There was additionally discuss of Assad’s authorities allying with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. However as metropolis after metropolis fell to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, it turned more and more unlikely that the Kurdish group would align with the weakening Assad forces – particularly as Kurdish forces themselves made vital territorial beneficial properties.
Syrian Democratic Forces might want to adapt in response to the autumn of Assad. This will probably be doubly true if, as many anticipate and President-elect Donald Trump has hinted at, the U.S. withdraws from Syria.
At the moment, the 900 U.S. troops are in japanese Syria, alongside a navy base in Al-Tanf, positioned close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.
Ought to American forces withdraw, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the autonomous area it administers — often called the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria — would want to barter their autonomy with each totally different factions of the opposition and Syrian neighbor Turkey.
A Kurdish and Islamist alliance?
The precarious position of Syrian Democratic Forces within the transition to the post-Assad period might make for a major international coverage headache for the U.S.
Given Turkey’s historical past of navy incursions and campaigns towards the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern cities like Afrin and Kobani, the Kurdish group might have to align with some factions of the opposition, possible Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ought to the U.S. finally withdraw.
Of late, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has largely prevented antagonizing the Syrian Democratic Forces. Certainly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to rebrand and average itself are notable, particularly given its origins as a Salafist group with ties to al-Qaida.
By adopting a spread of insurance policies like issuing an amnesty for Syrian military personnel, facilitating evacuation agreements and utilizing the language of constructing an ethnically and religiously numerous governance construction, the Islamist group has tried to melt its hard-line picture and achieve favor – or no less than neutrality – from worldwide stakeholders, just like the U.S.
But skepticism about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s final goals persists.
Strategic calculations for Turkey
Turkey’s place on Syria now could be equally advanced. Turkey is residence to three.6 million Syrian refugees — the biggest refugee-hosting nation globally. A chronic financial downturn and rising anti-refugee sentiment had pressured Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sign a willingness to have interaction with Assad previous to the opposition offensive.
Turkey’s hope was that normalized relations with Syria would assist facilitate refugee return and tackle issues a couple of potential Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.
However Assad dismissed such overtures, and he intensified airstrikes on Idlib – triggering new waves of displacement close to the Turkish border.
Turkey’s Syria coverage can be carefully linked to its renewed peace course of with the Kurdistan Employees’ Get together. These talks reportedly embrace discussions concerning the potential launch of imprisoned Kurdistan Employees’ Get together chief Abdullah Öcalan – whose affect runs deep in Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria.
The possibility for a brand new Syria
The obvious finish of the Assad household’s rule after half a century of brutal oppression signifies a pivotal second for Syria – providing a chance to rebuild the nation on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism and stability.
Reaching this imaginative and prescient depends upon the opposition factions’ capability to navigate the immense challenges of transition. This consists of fostering unity amongst numerous teams, addressing grievances from years of battle and establishing governance constructions that replicate Syria’s ethnic, spiritual and political variety. That will probably be no straightforward activity.
