Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu had anticipated to develop into Turkey’s opposition presidential nominee on March 23, 2025; as a substitute, he misplaced his freedom and faculty diploma.
On March 18, the politician – seen as a strong rival to long-ruling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – noticed his bachelor’s diploma revoked by Istanbul College. A day later, Imamoglu was arrested together with employees members and a district mayor of Istanbul.
As an skilled on Turkish politics, I imagine the timing of those two measures recommend that Erdogan is basically anxious that Imamoglu poses a critical risk to his 22-year-long rule.
The 100-plus individuals rounded up within the police sweep in Istanbul had been all from Turkey’s predominant opposition get together, the Republican Folks’s Celebration, or RPP, which was established by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The costs in opposition to them embody corruption, forming a felony group and aiding the PKK, a Kurdish group designated by Turkey as a terrorist group, by collaboration with the pro-Kurdish political get together.
What makes that accusation extra perplexing is that it comes at a time when the federal government is selling Abdullah Ocalan, the chief of the PKK, as a peacemaker who will dissolve the group. The about-face on Ocalan, who for the previous 26 years has been in a Turkish jail, is seen by political observers as an effort by Erdogan to courtroom Kurdish assist for a constitutional modification that might take away the presidential time period restrict that in any other case prevents him from operating once more.
President for all times?
The Turkish Structure limits presidents to 2 five-year phrases. Erdogan has already been elected thrice, however justified his third run by arguing that his first time period passed off earlier than the 2017 constitutional amendments that established the present system. If the time period restrict is lifted, he might be elected a fourth time – and probably past.
Is it time for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to go away the stage?
Sean Gallup/Getty Pictures
The principle impediment to Erdogan’s plans is Imamoglu, who seems to be considerably extra common than the long-serving president.
The revocation of Imamoglu’s 31-year-old diploma was extensively seen as an try to disqualify him from the presidential election and an excuse to cancel the RPP major on March 23. Based on Turkey’s Structure, a presidential candidate should be a college graduate.
The costs seem to have been introduced in opposition to Imamoglu with an much more bold objective in thoughts: to bar him from holding any public workplace, together with the mayorship. This may yield a triple victory for Erdogan – he would be capable of reclaim Istanbul’s mayoralty by appointing a hand-picked civil servant, push by constitutional adjustments by intimidating parliamentarians, and get rid of his strongest rival from any future presidential race.
The tried energy seize and time period extensions might shift Turkey’s political system from a flawed democracy to an “elected dictatorship” akin to Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
That’s why RPP chief Ozgur Ozel described the measures in opposition to Imamoglu as “a coup d’état against the people’s right to elect their leader.”
No extra free elections?
Erdogan is a grasp of electioneering by way of selling populist insurance policies, and manipulating the media and electoral practices to work in opposition to opposition events.
Going through weak rivals, whether or not by probability or by his manipulations, has been key to Erdogan’s electoral success over the previous twenty years. Below the management of its former chief, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition RPP has suffered successive defeats in presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections in opposition to Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Improvement Celebration.
Erdogan first confronted a critical problem to this electoral components within the 2023 presidential election, when polls confirmed that Imamoglu, in contrast to Kilicdaroglu, was extra common than Erdogan.
In an obvious bid by Erdogan to neutralize the risk 5 months earlier than the election, a courtroom sentenced Imamoglu to 2½ years in jail for insulting public officers after he known as Turkey’s Supreme Election Council “fools.” The ruling is now underneath attraction; if upheld, it will additionally bar him from holding public workplace.
Moderately than backing Imamoglu, Kilicdaroglu insisted on operating in opposition to Erdogan himself in 2023. This was a departure from the earlier two presidential elections, during which the RPP chief had backed different candidates. Regardless, Kilicdaroglu misplaced.
After defeat, Kilicdaroglu was faraway from RPP management, and the brand new get together head backs Imamoglu to run as a presidential candidate. Now, Imamoglu is operating with a reputation that surpasses Erdogan’s, making him probably the most formidable opposition candidate in twenty years.
Erdogan’s declining reputation
Throughout his lengthy rule, Erdogan has pursued a two-part technique to keep up his grip on energy: win elections to assert legitimacy whereas concurrently consolidate management by authoritarian means, comparable to imprisoning journalists and branding opposition figures as “terrorists.”
Nonetheless, Turkey’s 2024 municipal elections marked a shift in home politics. For the primary time since 2002, Erdogan’s JDP fell to second place, whereas the opposition RPP emerged because the main get together by vote share, securing main victories in each Istanbul – the place Imamoglu was reelected – and Ankara, Turkey’s capital, the place RPP’s Mansur Yavas gained one other time period.
A significant factor within the declining reputation of Erdogan’s get together – and the chief personally – is the nation’s ongoing financial disaster. Since 2022, Turkey’s annual inflation charge has hovered round 50%, eroding buying energy and triggering a significant mind drain as expert Turkish residents search higher alternatives elsewhere.
The disaster is extensively blamed on Erdogan’s financial insurance policies, significantly his insistence on decreasing rates of interest to fight inflation – contradicting typical financial knowledge.
Regardless of a latest coverage reversal, Turkey’s foreign money continues to depreciate. 5 years in the past, one U.S. greenback was value 5 Turkish lira; at present, it has surged to 40 lira.
Why is Imamoglu focused?
Incarceration shouldn’t be an unheard-of tactic in Turkey to silence opposition figures. Selahattin Demirtas, the previous chief of the pro-Kurdish Folks’s Democratic Celebration, has been behind bars for over eight years on terrorism costs; and Umit Ozdag, the chief of the far-right Victory Celebration, has been in jail for 2 months for insulting Erdogan and inciting hatred.
Each males had been irritants to Erdogan and will fire up bother, however neither was an actual risk to Erdogan’s energy.
What makes Imamoglu distinctive is that he possesses broad attraction throughout totally different voter blocs. He can entice the Kurdish vote whereas sustaining sturdy ties with nationalist politicians together with his charisma and public talking.
Supporters of Ekrem Imamoglu wave a poster flag of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk as they exhibit on March 19, 2025.
Kemal Aslan/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Extra importantly, he can attraction to each secularist and Islamic voters. He attracts assist from a pressure of Turkish society that adheres to the secular imaginative and prescient laid out by Ataturk. However on the similar time, he is ready to make overtures to non secular voters, comparable to by publicly reciting verses of the Quran.
This potential to unite various constituencies helped Imamoglu defeat Erdogan’s get together in Istanbul twice in 2019 – after the primary defeat, Erdogan refused to simply accept the consequence and the Supreme Election Council annulled the election.
Imamoglu’s reelection as mayor in 2024 solidified his repute because the main politician who might defeat Erdogan on the poll field.
The most recent arrest of the favored politician has sparked protests in a number of cities, a uncommon incidence in Turkey over the previous decade. It additionally coincided with a 7% drop within the Turkish inventory market, as traders seemingly noticed it as a sign of political instability.
However as occasions over latest days have proven, common assist alone might not be sufficient for Imamoglu to succeed in the presidency – he additionally should face down judicial and different efforts to maintain him off the poll.
