Who might have predicted that after almost 14 years of civil warfare and 5 years of stalemate, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria would collapse in only a week? With Assad’s departure, the urgent query now’s what lies forward for Syria’s quick future.
When opposition fighters led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the most important metropolis of Aleppo in late November with minimal resistance, commentators extensively believed it marked the start of the Assad regime’s downfall. Many anticipated a bitter combat to the top.
Assad was caught off guard, and his forces have been clearly unprepared. He withdrew his remaining troops from Aleppo to regroup and acquire time for reinforcements to reach from Russia and Iran, and hope the opposition fighters would cease there.
It wasn’t to be. Emboldened by their swift success in Aleppo, HTS fighters wasted no time and superior on Hama, capturing it with ease. They shortly adopted up by seizing Homs, the subsequent main metropolis to the south.
Russia offered restricted air assist to Assad. However Iran, having depleted its forces in Hezbollah’s defence towards Israel in Lebanon, was unable to supply vital help and withdrew its remaining personnel from Syria. In the meantime, Assad’s frantic requires assist from Iraq didn’t go anyplace.
Seeing the writing on the wall, the morale of Assad’s forces and management plummeted. Fearing retribution within the occasion of the regime’s collapse, defections started en masse, additional accelerating Assad’s downfall.
And on the final day, Assad fled the nation, and his prime minister formally handed over energy to HTS and its management. It marked the top of 54 years of Assad household rule in Syria.
Opposition fighters tear up an enormous portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo.
Mohammed Al-Rifai/EPA
The Assad legacy
The Assad household, together with Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, will seemingly be remembered by the vast majority of Syrians as brutal dictators.
In 1966, Hafez al-Assad led one other coup alongside different officers from the Alawite minority. This finally resulted in a civilian regime, with Hafez al-Assad changing into president in 1970.
Hafez al-Assad portrait, taken someday earlier than 1987.
Library of Congress/Wikimedia Commons
Hafez al-Assad established himself as an authoritarian dictator, concentrating energy, the army and the financial system within the arms of his relations and the Alawite group. In the meantime, the Sunni majority was largely marginalised and excluded from positions of energy and affect.
Hafez al-Assad is most infamously remembered for his brutal suppression of the opposition in 1982. The rebellion, led by the Islamic Entrance, noticed the opposition seize town of Hama. In response, the Syrian military razed town, leaving an estimated 10,000 to 40,000 civilians useless or disappeared and decisively crushing the riot.
Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, and, the least seemingly candidate, his youthful son, Bashar al-Assad, assumed the presidency. Having been educated within the West to develop into a health care provider, Bashar al-Assad projected a reasonable and trendy picture, elevating hopes he may usher in a brand new period of progress and democracy in Syria.
Nevertheless, Bashar al-Assad quickly discovered himself navigating a turbulent regional panorama following the September 11 2001 terror assaults and the US invasion of Iraq. In 2004, after america imposed sanctions on Syria, Assad sought nearer ties with Turkey. He and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan grew to become pals, eradicating visa necessities between their nations and planning to determine financial zones to spice up commerce.
Erdoğan and Assad then had a falling out throughout a collection of occasions in 2011, a yr that marked a turning level for Syria. The Arab Spring revolts swept into the nation, presenting Assad with a essential selection: to pursue a democratic path or crush the opposition as his father had achieved in 1982.
He selected the latter, lacking a historic alternative to peacefully remodel Syria.
The implications have been catastrophic. A devastating civil warfare broke out, leading to greater than 300,000 deaths (some estimates are greater), 5.4 million refugees, and 6.9 million individuals internally displaced. This will probably be Assad’s legacy.
A person rides a bicycle by means of Homs, Syria, in 2014. The town was devastated by the nation’s civil warfare.
Dusan Vranic/AP
Syria’s quick challenges
Syria now has a brand new power in energy: HTS and its management, spearheaded by the militant chief Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. They may face quick challenges and 4 key priorities:
1) Consolidating energy. The brand new management will now attempt to make sure there are not any armed teams able to contesting their rule, notably remnants of the outdated Assad regime and smaller factions that weren’t a part of the opposition forces.
Critically, they may also want to debate how energy will probably be shared among the many coalition of opposition teams. Al-Jolani is prone to develop into the founding president of the brand new Syria, however how the remainder of the ability will probably be distributed stays unsure.
It appears the opposition was not ready to take over the nation so shortly, and so they could not have a power-sharing settlement. This may have to be negotiated and labored out shortly.
The brand new authorities will seemingly recognise the Syrian Kurdish Individuals’s Safety Models (YPG) and the territories it controls as an autonomous area inside Syria. An unbiased Kurdish state, nonetheless, will probably be strongly opposed by Turkey, the primary exterior backer of the opposition.
But, historical past appears to be shifting in favour of the Kurds. There may be now the eventual chance of an unbiased Kurdish state, doubtlessly combining northern Iraq and northeastern Syria right into a single entity.
Syrian-Kurdish kids stand exterior their tent at a refugee camp in Suruc, on the Turkey-Syria border, in 2014..
Lefteris Pitarakis/AP
2) Worldwide recognition. Syria is a really advanced and numerous place. As such, the brand new authorities can solely be sustained if it positive aspects worldwide recognition.
The important thing gamers on this course of are Turkey, the European Union, america and Israel (by means of the US). It’s seemingly all of those entities will recognise the brand new authorities on the situation it types a reasonable administration, refrains from combating the Kurdish YPG, and doesn’t assist Hezbollah or Hamas.
Given their sudden success in toppling Assad so shortly, the opposition is prone to settle for these situations in trade for assist and recognition.
3) Forming a brand new authorities. The query on everybody’s thoughts is what sort of political order the opposition forces will now set up. HTS and lots of the teams in its coalition are Sunni Muslims, with HTS having origins linked to al-Qaeda. Nevertheless, HTS broke away from the fear organisation in 2016 and shifted its focus solely to Syria as an opposition motion.
However, we should always not anticipate a democratic secular rule. The brand new authorities can be unlikely to resemble the ultra-conservative theocratic rule of the Taliban.
In his current interview with CNN, al-Jolani made two key factors. He indicated he and different leaders within the group have developed of their outlook and Islamic understanding with age, suggesting the acute views from their youth have moderated over time. He additionally emphasised the opposition could be tolerant of the freedoms and rights of spiritual and ethnic minority teams.
The specifics of how this may manifest stay unclear. The expectation is HTS will kind a conservative authorities during which Islam performs a dominant position in shaping social insurance policies and lawmaking.
On the financial and international coverage fronts, the nation’s new leaders are prone to be pragmatic, open to alliances with the regional and world powers which have supported them.
4) Rebuilding the nation and sustaining unity. That is wanted to forestall one other civil warfare from erupting — this time among the many winners.
A current assertion from HTS’s Political Affairs Division mentioned the brand new Syria will concentrate on building, progress and reconciliation. The brand new authorities goals to create constructive situations for displaced Syrians to return to their nation, set up constructive relations with neighbouring nations and prioritise rebuilding the financial system.
Syria and the broader Center East have entered a brand new part of their trendy historical past. Time will inform how issues will unfold, however one factor is for certain: it’s going to by no means be the identical.
