The ex-president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, may quickly turn out to be the primary Asian former head of state to be tried at The Hague.
The populist politician was arrested on Mar. 11, 2025, after the Worldwide Legal Courtroom issued a warrant regarding his “war on drugs.”
Some 6,000-plus individuals had been killed in the course of the crackdown. However regardless of the controversy surrounding his insurance policies and the top of his presidency in 2022, Duterte stays an influential determine.
The Dialog U.S. turned to Lisandro Claudio, an professional on Philippine politics and historical past on the College of California, Berkeley, to clarify how the arrest may impression home politics and whether or not this might imply the top of Duterte’s sway.
What do we all know in regards to the arrest and costs?
The arrest warrant issued by the ICC states that Duterte is charged with crimes in opposition to humanity regarding occasions that occurred between Nov. 1, 2011, to Mar. 16, 2019. That is vital because it covers a interval not simply when Duterte was president but additionally when he was mayor of Davao Metropolis – the richest metropolis within the island of Mindanao.
Duterte went on to function president from 2016 to 2022, however he pulled the nation out of the Rome Statute, the treaty that arrange the ICC, in 2019. Nonetheless, the ICC says the alleged crimes fall inside their jurisdiction as they had been carried out earlier than the Philippines ended its relationship with the ICC.
Duterte is alleged to have overseen the systemic use of homicide, torture and rape in opposition to civilians.
He’s accused of appearing because the de facto chief of the Davao Dying Squad, a bunch that was answerable for abstract executions and the homicide or disappearance of greater than 1,000 individuals in and across the metropolis. However importantly, the prosecution can be of Duterte’s nationalization of the technique of demise squads. On coming to energy, he included the “war on drugs” into the coverage of the nationwide police.
A airplane carrying former President Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague takes off from Manila, Philippines, on Mar. 11, 2025.
AP Picture/Aaron Favila
Based mostly on the way in which the ICC warrant was written and reporting within the Philippines, it seems that former members of the Davao Dying Squad and cops could also be testifying for the prosecution, together with, it’s thought, hit man-turned-whistleblower Edgar Matobato and ex-Davao Metropolis police officer Arturo Lascañas.
What function did the federal government play within the arrest?
Duterte’s arrest and rendition, for need of a greater phrase, to the Netherlands seems to have taken place with the cooperation of the Philippine authorities.
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the person who succeeded Duterte, held a press convention following the arrest wherein he defined that regardless of not being a part of the Rome Treaty, the Philippines is dedicated to supporting the Worldwide Legal Police Group, or Interpol. And it was Interpol that requested Manila to implement the warrant after receiving it from the ICC.
The indication from Marcos was that the Philippine authorities had no selection however to adjust to Interpol for 2 causes. First, it’s the anticipated conduct of a democratic nation to adjust to worldwide norms, and second, Interpol has helped the Philippines arrest fugitives up to now – together with former mayor and suspected Chinese language spy Alice Guo.
Briefly, Marcos is saying it’s within the nationwide curiosity to adjust to the ICC arrest warrant.
Is it in President Marcos’ political pursuits, too?
The Philippines can’t dictate to the ICC when to challenge a warrant, or to whom.
And it seems ICC prosecutor Karim Khan requested the warrant on Feb. 10, so the timing wasn’t decided by Marcos.
However that isn’t to say that it isn’t lucky timing.
There is a vital midterm election in Could, and Marcos is eager to make use of it to consolidate his energy amid an ongoing feud with Vice President Sara Duterte – the daughter of the now-arrested former president.
In 2022, Sara Duterte and Marcos ran on the identical ticket for vp and president. However this coalition between two household dynasties – Bongbong Marcos is the son of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos and nonetheless highly effective matriach of the household, Imelda – broke down reasonably rapidly.
Combating between Sara Duterte and Martin Romualdez, the speaker of the Home of Representatives and a cousin of President Marcos, strained the connection.
However past the character points, there was a divergence in coverage between the Dutertes and Marcoses. Notably, underneath Marcos Jr., the Philippines has pivoted again to the U.S. by permitting American troops again into the nation and taking a extra aggressive stance with regard to China within the South China Sea.
This strategy has been challenged by the Duterte household, which has been nearer to China. Within the first yr of the Marcos administration, Rodrigo Duterte served as a kind of envoy to Beijing, though it grew to become more and more clear that this was extra of an unbiased relationship between the previous president and Chinese language chief Xi Jinping.
So may this be the top of Duterte’s affect?
That’s actually what President Marcos could also be banking on.
The ICC prosecution of the daddy paired with a forthcoming impeachment of the daughter will neuter the Duterte clan’s energy.
The rationale that is so vital for Marcos is that Sara Duterte has made it clear she desires to be the following president, and given the in poor health feeling between the 2, there’s a widespread assumption that if in energy she is going to go after varied members of the Marcos household.
With Duterte busy defending his case in The Hague, he shall be unable to focus his efforts on serving to his senator selections get elected within the midterms. It would additionally, presumably, finish his bid to return as mayor of Davao Metropolis – a place that might give him a strong bully pulpit.
Nobody ought to underestimate the charisma of Rodrigo Duterte; he is sort of a Donald Trump determine in that means. Many critics don’t absolutely perceive the facility of his charisma, his humor and the heat that he shows to supporters – however it propelled him to excessive ranges of recognition whereas in energy.
And the general public doesn’t see that charisma in his three kids, together with present Vice President Sara Duterte. A part of this is because of sexism – there may be a whole lot of sexism in Filipino politics, so persons are extra prone to help a brash-talking man like Rodrigo Duterte, in contrast along with his daughter. And Sara Duterte has issues of her personal – notably the impeachment costs regarding alleged corruption whereas she was secretary of training.
Might this result in a extra polarized politics?
Your guess is nearly as good as mine right here. Within the quick run, the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte is clearly excellent for President Marcos. And the small scale of the pro-Duterte protests counsel no nice rebellion in opposition to the arrest.
However what occurs subsequent – and the way it’s reported – is essential.
Filipinos love a political martyr. We noticed this when former President Joseph Estrada was arrested and prosecuted over stealing public cash in 2001 – his mughshot was adopted by supporters across the nation. The identical may occur to Duterte – it may go each methods.
