With the social democrat Olaf Scholz conceding defeat to the centre proper in Germany’s election, the person almost certainly to be named the subsequent chancellor will likely be Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chief Friedrich Merz.
The CDU has emerged as the most important occasion with the far-right Different for Germany (AfD) second – its best-ever end in a federal election.
Merz must assemble a coalition authorities, which is able to contain some robust negotiations, however Europe’s leaders could be anticipated to deal with him as a “chancellor in waiting”. Listed here are eight issues to know in regards to the man about to take one of the vital political positions in Europe.
1. He’s taking his occasion additional to the appropriate
The very first thing it is advisable learn about Merz is that he and former chancellor Angela Merkel had been longstanding rivals and sparring companions. Again within the early 2000s, after Merkel grew to become chief of the CDU, she ousted Merz from his function because the occasion’s parliamentary chief, taking over the function herself.
Merkel by no means made Merz a minister, and certainly he determined to not run for parliament once more in 2009, having already begun to concentrate on his numerous non-public sector pursuits (as a lawyer but in addition an organization board member). Merz was vital of Merkel’s resolution to shift the CDU to the centre floor and was involved it will open up house for the AfD to maneuver into.
When Merz did change into occasion chief in 2022, he started rewriting of the occasion’s programme in a way more conservative route.
2. He’s an financial liberal
Merz takes a really totally different financial view to Merkel, not less than within the latter years of her chancellorship. In 2003, he argued for a radical simplification of Germany’s tax guidelines such {that a} tax return might be calculated on the again of a beer mat.
His occasion’s 2025 manifesto argued for deregulation and tax cuts to spice up Germany’s sluggish development. A part of this, Merz argued, must be funded by extra conditionality being utilized to welfare recipients, with an entire cease on advantages for recipients who refused to take any type of work on. In 2024, he additionally mentioned he’d do “everything” to cease the EU taking over widespread debt.
3. He’s a social conservative
In his youthful years, Merz was within the Catholic youth motion. He has a document of voting in opposition to abortion and has made a number of awkward feedback about homosexuality (saying of Klaus Wowereit, a homosexual mayor of Berlin, “I don’t mind as long as he doesn’t come near me”). In a wierd remark, he as soon as referred to his spouse and daughters as proof he didn’t have an issue with girls. In a TV debate with Scholz, Merz was requested about Donald Trump’s recognition of solely two genders, and reacted: “You can understand his position.”
In 2000, Merz spoke of a German Leitkultur (loosely, “leading culture”, as contrasted with “multiculturalism”) – a time period now in widespread parlance in Merz’s CDU.
4. He’s a transatlantacist
From 2009 to 2019, Merz chaired the Atlantic Bridge, a distinguished German organisation dedicated to strengthening relations between Germany and the US. He’s a transatlanticist by intuition and just lately despatched a hand-written observe to Donald Trump congratulating him on his election, noting his “strong mandate for leadership”. Nonetheless, in an announcement on election evening, Merz pledged to “achieve independence” from the US and recognised that Trump is “largely indifferent” to Europe’s destiny.
5. He’s pro-European
With some caveats (as an illustration round widespread debt and cooperation over refugees) Merz is a pro-European. He was a member of the European parliament between 1989 and 1994, and has been clear that nearer European cooperation is a necessary a part of Europe’s reply to Trump.
He has additionally patched up relations with European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen (with whom, as a Merkel ally and CDU liberal he had little instinctive attraction), and sees potential in cooperation along with her and with Manfred Weber, a CSU politician and chief of the European parliament’s centre-right MEPs.
Merz has additionally pledged to go to Warsaw and Paris to rebuild relations after a troublesome interval below Scholz.
6. His dealings with the far proper have been controversial
Merz has been persistently inconsistent relating to relations with the AfD. He mused in 2023 about the opportunity of cooperation at a neighborhood degree, noting that “we are obliged to recognise democratic elections”, earlier than rowing again.
In November 2024, Merz mentioned he and his occasion wouldn’t try and cross laws within the nationwide parliament if it meant counting on AfD votes to do it. However he shocked the nation in January 2025 when he did exactly that – pushing ahead a hardline immigration plan with the AfD’s assist.
The volte face earned him criticism from his nemesis, Merkel – though that’s not one thing more likely to have involved him unduly.
7. He’ll be hemmed in by coalition politics
Merz might want to strike a cope with a number of different events with a view to govern. That can make his flagship programme of tax cuts onerous to realize, since cuts to welfare or local weather spending can be anathema to all potential coalition companions.
Scholz has conceded defeat.
EPA
Germany’s different events as a substitute need Merz to rethink Germany’s “debt brake” – the constitutional guidelines that limit authorities borrowing. He’ll be below much more stress to take action given a broad consensus over the necessity to increase defence spending.
Maybe it can take a conservative fiscal hawk to assemble the mandatory two-thirds majorities in each chambers of parliament for change.
8. He’d like to go to… Tibet?
Lastly, amongst somewhat skinny pickings in common reporting on Merz’s hobbies, a softball interview final summer time advised us he likes trendy classical music and Beethoven, and in the future hopes to go to Tibet.
However holidays will likely be a way from his priorities in the mean time. There’s a robust want in Europe for Germany to play a extra lively management function as soon as once more. At a time when Trump is noisily backing away from underscoring European safety and supporting Ukraine, Merz is keenly conscious of the void being opened up, and is decided that Germany, with its European allies (together with even the UK) will step up.
