Chinese language president Xi Jinping delivered his annual televised new yr handle on December 31, and commentators have been fast to share their interpretation. Some have emphasised Xi’s passing reference to Chinese language reunification as a menace in opposition to Taiwan. Others have targeted on Xi’s feedback about China’s financial system, framing them as a fearful response to Donald Trump’s reelection as US president.
Nevertheless, these accounts miss the larger image. Xi’s new yr handle speaks to the growing insecurity of the Chinese language Communist social gathering’s (CCP) grip on energy. This insecurity is obvious in how Xi’s feedback, supported by the social gathering’s management of Chinese language media, tried to gaslight the Chinese language folks.
The mainstay of Xi’s handle involved the financial success of China. He pressured that the Chinese language financial system is prospering, and defined that China’s whole GDP is quickly anticipated to surpass 130 trillion yuan (£14.3 trillion). This equates to a 4.9% improve in GDP over the course of the final 12 months.
Omitted from the optimistic financial commentary of Xi’s handle is the truth that China’s financial development has slowed, falling from 5.2% in 2023. Though a development price of 4.9% is spectacular relative to different developed economies, it’s disappointing throughout the context of Chinese language financial development. China achieved annual development charges of over 10% within the 2000s, with GDP even rising by round 13% in some years.
One yr in the past, in his 2024 handle, Xi acknowledged the challenges going through the Chinese language financial system. He promised financial interventions that might speed up development and promote job creation to deal with worrying charges of youth unemployment. Nevertheless, regardless of these interventions, China’s financial development continues to gradual and youth unemployment stays excessive.
Gaslighting the Chinese language folks
It’s maybe obscure why Xi and the CCP admitted to financial challenges when China’s development price was increased and celebrated financial success when development had slowed. However it is sensible when thought of via the lens of “goal-shifting” – an act that goes past the optimistic spin governments placed on their nation’s financial efficiency.
Purpose-shifting is a type of political gaslighting, through which a longtime aim is “shifted” to 1 that’s simpler to realize. This has the results of permitting an unfavourable final result by the usual of the unique aim to be introduced as an achievement by the usual of the brand new aim.
If we take China’s 2024 GDP development of 4.9% as the result, it may be seen unfavourably as compared with China’s 5.2% development in 2023. Nevertheless, by shifting the aim to China having increased GDP development than different developed economies – a feat that was by no means really doubtful – China’s 2024 development price may be framed as “remarkable” in Chinese language media.
It seems the CCP is utilizing its affect and management over the Chinese language media to stress the financial message of Xi’s handle. In doing so, it’s gaslighting the Chinese language folks by shifting China’s financial objectives to downplay the struggling financial system. On the identical time, the CCP is framing the relative energy of Chinese language development in comparison with different nations as a hit of the social gathering’s financial stewardship.
After many years of development, China’s financial system is starting to falter.
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For the reason that Nineteen Eighties, the CCP has relied on the dual pillars of economics and nationalism to uphold the legitimacy of its authorities. Economically, its legitimacy was upheld by years of excessive development, which has lifted greater than 800 million folks in China out of poverty. However, with development slowing over the previous decade, the CCP has pivoted in the direction of a reliance on nationalism.
The CCP and China’s nationalist motion have a symbiotic relationship. The CCP promotes nationalistic values in colleges and helps nationalist tasks all through China similar to historic societies, patriotic statues and museums. This provides nationalist teams a vested curiosity in supporting the CCP.
Nevertheless, this relationship is detrimental to the CCP in the long run. The CCP can’t constrain nationalist teams with out undermining its personal nationalist credentials. This has resulted in eventualities the place nationalist teams have acted in opposition to the CCP’s needs, together with launching cyber assaults each in China and overseas.
The dual-pillar mannequin the CCP has relied on for many years is faltering. In his earlier new yr handle, Xi took the unprecedented step of acknowledging China’s financial struggles. Reluctant to stir nationalist sentiment, the CCP tried to make use of the financial pillar by betting on a reversal of financial fortunes in 2024. This reversal didn’t materialise.
The CCP has turn out to be more and more insecure, so Xi’s 2025 new yr handle adjusted the objectives for judging China’s financial efficiency. In the meantime, the social gathering inspired reporting that supported Xi’s handle, spinning China’s slowing development and worsening financial woes as a “remarkable” financial achievement.
