The autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has opened a brand new entrance for geopolitical competitors within the Center East.
Now, nevertheless, as an alternative of Iran and Russia enjoying essentially the most influential roles in Syria, Israel and Turkey see a possibility to advance their conflicting nationwide and regional safety pursuits.
Beneath their respective leaders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, relations between the 2 nations have deteriorated sharply in recent times. This units the stage for a bitter showdown over Syria.
A brand new rivalry is rising
Turkey is extensively reported to have backed the offensive led by the Sunni insurgent group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to drive Assad from energy, thus backstabbing Syria’s conventional allies, Iran and Russia.
Tehran has intimated that with out Turkey’s assist, HTS would have been unable to realize its blistering takeover.
Now, with Assad gone, Erdoğan is believed to be positioning himself as de facto chief of the Sunni Muslim world. He additionally needs Turkey to be one of many dominant powers within the area.
Erdoğan has stated if the Ottoman Empire had been divided otherwise following its defeat within the First World battle, a number of Syrian cities, together with Aleppo and Damascus, would have possible been a part of modern-day Turkey.
Turkey instantly reopened its embassy in Damascus after Assad’s fall and provided assist to HTS in shaping the nation’s new Islamist order.
As a part of this, Erdoğan has opposed any concession by HTS to the US-backed Kurdish minority in Syria’s northeast, which he regards as supporters of the Kurdish separatists in Turkey.
In the meantime, Israel has taken benefit of the ability vacuum in Syria to advance its territorial and safety ambitions. It has launched a land incursion into the Syrian aspect of the strategic Golan Heights and has executed an enormous bombardment of Syria’s navy property throughout the nation.
Israeli troops patrol in autos alongside the border between Israel and Syria in early December.
Atef Safadi/EPA
Israel’s international minister stated destroying these property – which included ammunition depots, fighter jets, missiles and chemical weapons storage amenities – was crucial to make sure they didn’t fall into the “hands of extremists” that might pose a risk to the Jewish state.
Turkey sees Israel’s latest actions in Syria and the occupied Golan Heights as a land seize. Israel’s actions have additionally been denounced by Arab nations, who demand Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity be revered.
Israel is clearly involved concerning the rise to energy of an Islamist group and the transformation of Syria right into a jihadist state.
That is even though HTS chief Ahmad al-Sharaa (also called Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has signalled he doesn’t need battle with Israel. He’s additionally pledged to not enable any teams to make use of Syria for assaults on Israel.
On the similar time, al-Sharaa has known as for the withdrawal of Israel from Syrian territory based on a 1974 settlement that adopted the 1973 Yom Kippur battle.
Bitter foes
Erdoğan, Turkey’s average Islamist president, has lengthy been a supporter of the Palestinian trigger and a fierce critic of Israel. However tensions have considerably escalated between the 2 sides because the begin of the Gaza battle.
Erdoğan has known as for an Arab-Islamic entrance to cease what he’s known as Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza. He has equally berated Israel’s invasion of Lebanon earlier this 12 months.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in the meantime, has lashed out at Erdoğan over time. He has known as him a “joke” and “dictator” whose jails are full journalists and political prisoners. He has additionally accused of Erdoğan of committing a “genocide” of the Kurdish individuals.
Washington, which is allied to each Turkey and Israel, has launched intense diplomatic efforts to make sure that HTS strikes Syria in a beneficial path. It’s eager to see a post-Assad system of governance aligned with America’s pursuits.
These pursuits embrace HTS’ assist for America’s Kurdish allies in northeast Syria and the continued presence of 1,000 American troops within the nation. The US additionally needs HTS to proceed to forestall the Islamic State terror group from regaining power.
Kurdish fighters of the Folks’s Safety Models (YPG) stand guard as US forces take up positions in northern Syria in 2017.
AP
The US may also should handle the rising geopolitical rivalry between Israel and Turkey in Syria.
Some observers haven’t dominated out the opportunity of an Israeli-Turkish navy showdown, ought to Israel flip what it calls its momentary occupation of the demilitarised zone on the Syrian aspect of the Golan Heights right into a everlasting territorial acquisition.
This isn’t to say a battle between them is imminent. However their clashing pursuits and the breadth of mutual hostility has definitely reached a brand new degree.
Iran’s loss could possibly be expensive
For Iran, Assad’s ouster means the lack of a crucial ally in its predominantly Shia “axis of resistance” towards Israel and america.
The Iranian regime had labored onerous to construct this community during the last 45 years as a elementary a part of its nationwide and wider safety. It had propped up Assad’s minority Alawite dictatorship over the Sunni majority inhabitants in Syria at the price of some US$30 billion (A$47 billion) because the in style rebellion towards Assad started in 2011.
Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proper, speaks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in Might 2024.
Workplace of the Iranian Supreme Chief/AP
And with Assad now gone, Iran is disadvantaged of a significant land and air bridge to one in all its key proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Assad regime’s sudden demise is now inflicting soul looking out in Tehran concerning the knowledge of its regional technique – and whether or not it can have any vital position in any respect within the new Syria. This appears unlikely, as al-Sharaa (the chief of HTS) has declared his disdain for each Iran and Hezbollah.
Al-Sharaa has prioritised the institution of a publicly mandated Islamist authorities and Syria’s reconstruction and nationwide unity over a battle with Israel, Iran’s arch enemy. It will little doubt result in competition with the hardliners and reformists in Iran.
Solely time will inform how all of this can play out. At this stage, the way forward for Syria and the area hangs within the steadiness. And far relies on whether or not HTS leaders will transfer to arrange an all-inclusive political system and unite a Balkanised Syria.
