Chinese language chief Xi Jinping would doubtless see President-elect Donald Trump’s invitation to attend his inauguration as too dangerous to just accept, and the gesture from Trump could have little bearing on the more and more aggressive ties between the 2 nations because the White Home adjustments palms, consultants say.
Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed on Thursday that Trump prolonged an invite to the Jan. 20 ceremony.
The Chinese language Embassy in Washington mentioned it had no data to offer. However consultants don’t see Xi coming to Washington subsequent month.
Why wouldn’t Xi attend?
“Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, DC, in January at the feet of the podium, surrounded by hawkish members of Congress, gazing up at Donald Trump as he delivers his inaugural address?” mentioned Danny Russel, who beforehand served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
Russel, now vice chairman for worldwide safety and diplomacy on the Asia Society Coverage Institute, mentioned Xi wouldn’t enable himself to “be reduced to the status of a mere guest celebrating the triumph of a foreign leader — the US president, no less.”
Yun Solar, director of the China program on the Stimson Heart, a Washington-based assume tank, mentioned Beijing will play it protected when there’s no protocol or precedent for a Chinese language chief to attend the inauguration of a US president.
“I don’t think the Chinese will take the risk,” Solar mentioned.
There could possibly be dangers within the visitor record, for instance, Solar mentioned, noting that Taiwan’s prime diplomat within the US attended the swearing-in of President Joe Biden in 2021.
Beijing considers Taiwan to be Chinese language territory and has repeatedly warned the US that it’s a pink line to not be crossed.
Ought to Trump slap tariffs as excessive as 60% on Chinese language items upon taking workplace as he’s threatened, Xi would seem like a idiot if he had chosen to attend, and that’s unacceptable to Beijing, Solar mentioned.
Fairly, Chinese language officers are recognized for his or her obsession with the dignity and safety of their chief when touring overseas, mentioned Russel, who has negotiated high-level summits with the Chinese language.
“They have always demanded that any leader trip to Washington be treated as a full ‘state visit’ with all the bells and whistles,” Russel mentioned.
What’s forward for US-China relations?
But it surely must be anticipated that planning is underway for Trump and Xi to fulfill in particular person quickly, Russel mentioned.
Trump prefers in-person conferences with international leaders, particularly key adversaries, and Beijing would possibly imagine it could actually get a greater deal by dealing immediately with Trump, Russel mentioned.
Trump’s return to the White Home is anticipated to additional intensify the US-China rivalry. He has picked a number of China hawks for his Cupboard, together with Sen. Marco Rubio because the secretary of state and Rep. Mike Waltz because the nationwide safety adviser.
Beijing has adopted a “wait-and-see” method however says it’s ready to hit again ought to Washington elevate tariffs on Chinese language items or make different unfriendly strikes.
Solar of the Stimson Heart cautions that Trump’s invitation doesn’t exclude hostile insurance policies towards China. Trump visited China in 2017 and “played nice,” however the next 12 months he launched the commerce battle, she mentioned.
“We’ve seen this before,” Solar mentioned.
“For Trump, there’s no contradiction between carrot and stick. For China, that’s a contradiction. It will add to China’s desire to play safe, not to be played by Trump, whether it is a friendly or a hostile message.”
