St. John’s is 3-0 on the 12 months with three 20-plus level wins.
After all, the Johnnies haven’t performed anyone, overwhelming Fordham, Quinnipiac and Wagner.
New Mexico shall be Rick Pitino and Co.’s hardest take a look at but.
The Lobos have already posted a KenPom top-25 win after beating UCLA final Friday in Las Vegas.
Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph are a formidable inside-out duo.
These are two related squads, and I feel the Lobos have a combating likelihood of preserving it shut for 40 minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s odds
| Group | Unfold | Moneyline | Whole |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | +8.5 (-108) | +290 | Over 161.5 (-114) |
| St. John’s | -8.5 (-112) | -375 | Below 161.5 (-106) |
New Mexico vs. St. John’s prediction
(12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports activities 1)
Each squads run up-tempo, transition-reliant offenses centered round their backcourts. The Lobos and Johnnies will put the ball of their guards’ arms and allow them to run the open courtroom for 40 minutes.
Each squads have gifted frontcourt items however restricted frontcourt depth. They’re additionally restricted within the taking pictures and spacing departments, typically creating within the mid-range.
These are two above-average transition defenses, so whereas I anticipate loads of transition makes an attempt, each would possibly discover hassle scoring effectively.
However there are a number of matchup wrinkles that favor the Lobos.
In principle, Coach Pitino’s matchup zone protection ought to neutralize ball-screen actions.
However in observe, the Johnnies’ ball-screen protection has been greater than sketchy. They ranked 332nd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed final season (.88) and allowed opponents to run the set at a well-above-average price.
That doesn’t bode properly for this matchup, given the Lobos run nearly solely ball-screen units with Dent, Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil within the half-court.
Moreover, I’m impressed with New Mexico’s rim strain within the early season. The Lobos are averaging 28 at-the-rim field-goal makes an attempt per recreation (98th percentile). That can undoubtedly end in higher-efficiency photographs than St. John’s mid-range-reliant assault.
The Johnnies ranked 325th nationally in Rim-and-3 price final season, and their most important offseason addition is former Seton Corridor guard Kadary Richmond, a gifted two-way participant who spends an excessive amount of time pedaling in the course of the ground.
I’m additionally unsure how the Crimson Storm’s offense will look with out Joel Soriano.
Sunday shall be their first true take a look at with out their former star middle.
He grabbed one million offensive rebounds final 12 months, masking a shooting-deficient roster by creating constant second-chance offense.
This 12 months’s roster doesn’t have an sufficient substitute, particularly in the event that they maintain taking part in the 6-foot-7 RJ Luis on the 4.
That will get to a extra overarching level about roster continuity.
Groups with extra returning manufacturing are inclined to outperform groups with much less within the early season — totally shaped groups carry out higher than the transfer-laden ones in November and December.
Betting on Faculty Basketball?
New Mexico ranks 66th nationally in minutes continuity (49%), whereas St. John’s ranks 263rd (22%).
The Johnnies are counting on 4 transfers for important possession minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s choose
The Lobos and Johnnies play very related schemes, making me suppose the 2 will play a closely-contested recreation.
However I’m prepared to again New Mexico’s returning gamers and ball-screen offense in opposition to St. John’s transfers and sketchy ball-screen protection protection.
Finest Guess: New Mexico +8.5 (-108, FanDuel)
